16 Mar 2006: ISS Today: Chad: Government Foiled Coup Attempt by Soldiers
16 MARCH 2006: CHAD SAYS IT FOILED COUP ATTEMPT BY SOLDIERS
reuters
Chad’s government said on Wednesday that it had foiled a coup attempt against President Idriss Deby by some members of the army. Information minister Hourmadji Moussa Doungor said two senior officers had been arrested while other plotters had fled towards the east.
Commentary
According to official statements from N’Djamena, disaffected army officers were thwarted before they could carry out a plan to shoot down President Déby’s aircraft on his return from a summit meeting in Equatorial Guinea. They also claimed that the plot was masterminded by his twin nephews, Tom and Timam Erdimi, erstwhile senior presidential aides with responsibility for the vital oil and cotton sectors, and by General Seby Aguid, who deserted in February with a large number of troops to join Chadian rebel forces along the border with Darfur.
The years since Déby seized power in 1990, in an assault launched from Darfur with Sudanese and Libyan assistance, have seen his political base steadily eroding. In 1994, one of the leading figures in his own rebellion, Mahamat Nour, began his own insurgency from the east of the country, adding to the number of localised civil conflicts which had beset the country since independence. Nour has now emerged as a leading figure in an alliance of rebel organisations calling itself the United Front for Democratic Change (FUC). Déby accuses the Sudanese government of harbouring these rebels and using them in an attempt to destabilise his regime. There may be an element of truth in this assertion, though it should also be borne in mind that some of the mutineers had been unhappy with Déby’s failure to come to the assistance of his fellow Zaghawa leading their own uprising against Khartoum. Bringing an international dimension into the equation may also be a way of courting the support of foreign backers who might be less willing to prop up the regime against domestic opponents.
The defection of large numbers of Chadian soldiers to the east, and of members of the president’s own family illustrated how tenuous his hold on power had become. Late last year the presidential guard was simply disbanded and, apparently for security reasons, no parades were held to celebrate the fifteenth anniversary of Déby’s accession to power.
Many of the president’s coterie were as alarmed as other Chadians at the constitutional changes made to allow Déby to stand for a third elective term in May 2006. There were also fears that the relatively young, but ailing, president was grooming his unpopular son to succeed him. Since then, the National Assembly has also extended its term by eighteen months, pleading the impossibility of funding electoral contests so close to each other.
The need to counter the mounting security threat was partly responsible for Chad’s decision to abrogate its agreement with the World Bank about the handling of oil revenues, which had been earmarked for social spending and were now diverted at the government’s discretion. Oil supplies, and the likelihood of fresh discoveries, also play their part in wooing potential international benefactors. The National Assembly is on notice to review the oil contracts concluded with US firms, and Déby has held talks in Paris with Prime Minister de Villepin in which oil concessions are rumoured to have been discussed, Elf having withdrawn from Chad some years ago after being excluded from the most lucrative contracts. China, too, is showing greater interest in Chad’s oil sector, and may also be seduced by the prospect of securing N’djamena’s recognition in place of Taiwan. This would improve the government’s fortunes following the breach with the World Bank and other donors.
There is little doubt that Déby’s troubles are far from over. The rebels’ military strength is far greater than last year, though they are being pressured by Libya to seek a political solution to their grievances. Also, if a major assault is to be launched, it will have to come soon, before months of heavy rain make access and re-supply from Darfur virtually impossible.
It should be borne in mind, however, that even were the rebels to seize power in N’Djamena, there is little sign of any shared political platform, and once the old order had been removed, it would probably be replaced by something remarkably similar and just as prone to fratricidal conflict; an episode in the longer running struggle to create a meaningful state in Chad.
Richard Cornwell
