14 Jun 2007: ISS Today: Coup Plot In Zimbabwe

14 June: Coup Plot In Zimbabwe

 

Zimabwe’s capital city has been gripped by news of a foiled coup, in which a number of senior army officers have been implicated. Information unfolding indicated that six senior army officers and a retired senior army officer are currently being held at Chikurubi Maximum Prison on charges of attempting to overthrow the government.(1)

 

Commentary

 

The Zimbabwean Newspaper has reported that last week a number of senior army officers and civilians were arrested in Harare, Zimbabwe, for allegedly plotting a coup against the current ZANU-PF Government. Although officials close to President Mugabe have disavowed any knowledge of the coup plot, the newspaper claims to have witnessed the court appearance of the army officers last week.

 

There has been a measure of restlessness in the Zimbabwean Defense Force and Police as the country’s economic meltdown has continued. Inflation is now running at more than an annualised 3,700%, but the monthly salary of the average soldier is a meagre $Z400,000 (R40 equivalent on the parallel market). This is inadequate even to pay for monthly transport to work, before taking into account food, accommodation and other expenses.

 

There has long been speculation that deteriorating economic conditions could erode the loyalty of the security forces to the ZANU-PF regime. Hitherto the loyalty of senior army officials has been reinforced by them being provided generous salaries and other benefits such as luxury cars to shield them from economic conditions. The alleged coup may indicate that discontent is creeping into senior army ranks or that some senior officials are plotting to take advantage of discontent in lower ranks to seize power. The reported deployment of units of the Presidential Guard in army barracks around the country suggests that the government no longer trusts that the army will remain loyal under the present conditions.

 

Thousands of soldiers and members of the police force have either resigned or deserted in recent months. Police resignations have recently been refused on orders of the Police Commissioner. The Government`s security concerns about the coming combined Presidential and Parliamentary elections could be behind the recently announced intention to enlarge the police force from a 29,000 to 50,000. It seems likely that the new recruits will come mainly from the government`s youth training camps, whose loyalty the government can be assured of.

 

Economists have predicted a continued decline in the economy that will translate into further hardships for the security forces and therefore more unrest in the army. Further government action is therefore to be expected, not all of it legal. There have been numerous unconfirmed reports of disappearances and executions of soldiers in recent months. The Central Intelligence Organisation appears to have remained committed to the regime for the present.

 

Aquilina Mawadza, African Human Security Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)