13 Nov 2006: ISS Today: Gunfire, Explosions Heard in Congo`s Capital City

13 November 2006: Gunfire, Explosions Heard in Congo`s Capital City

 

Heavy gunfire and loud blasts rang out in the Congolese capital on Saturday in new clashes between fighters loyal to the contenders in historic elections meant to end a decade of war. Soldiers allied to Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba, a former rebel chief, said they were fighting police and the Republican Guard loyal to President Joseph Kabila, whom Bemba challenged in an October 29 presidential run-off vote.

 

Full results have not yet been published, but Bemba’s camp has already alleged systematic cheating.

 

Shooting started mid-morning around Bemba’s office on Kinshasa’s main boulevard, where Bemba’s supporters have staged demonstrations in recent days.

Both European and UN Peacekeepers have stepped up patrols and fortified their position in Kinshasa in the past few weeks, hoping to avoid a repetition of the August violence when Bemba’s and Kabila’s private armies fought fierce street battles. Kinshasa’s population overwhelmingly supports Bemba, who speaks the same Lingala tongue as the western swathe of Congo, while Kabaila speaks the Swahili of the east (1).

 

Commentary

 

With nearly two thirds of results processed, the latest partial results published by the Electoral Commission (IEC) indicates that President Joseph Kabila is in the lead with 61% of the votes over his rival Jean-Pierre Bemba with 39%. Accusations of serious fraud from Bemba’s camp are raising tensions and stirring fears of violence as peacekeepers try to avoid further violence - twice last week Bemba complained about "systematic" errors amounting to a "policy of cheating" in the compilation of results. Bemba`s campaign manager, Fidel Babala, said the vice-president`s camp was sending another letter of complaint to the commission. "We may not respect the results if they don`t take our complaints seriously," he said (2). Colin Stewart, a co-director of the U.S. Carter Center in Congo had told Reuters that given the sensitive political situation, it`s unhelpful to have candidates brandishing allegations publicly before the election commission can respond them to. A pamphlet was also circulated last week urging the population of Kinshasa to reject the outcome of the election because the IEC has cheated. Bemba’s camp has denied the allegation. Since last Friday groups of people has been gathering in front of Bemba’s television station and his house on the Boulevard 30 Jun. On Friday street boys who were burning tyres and stoning cars were quickly dispersed by the police, but early the next morning the street boys were back. A big gathering was planned for Saturday, 11 November at Bemba’s house in the Boulevard 30 at 09h30.  When the police tried to disperse the children, Bemba’s soldiers began firing on the police. This resulted in the deployment of FARDC elements to control the situation. In the afternoon Bemba’s MLC officers were out on the street to get the troops back in the barracks. Unconfirmed reports are that 4 people were killed in the fighting.

 

This incident raises a few questions. Why were elements of Bemba’s force allowed to leave their barracks and attack the police. Was this element deployed with the knowledge of their senior officers or not. This incident took place in front of the MONUC deployed forces, why then was it not policed and stopped by them. According to witnesses, EUFOR patrols moved away from the incident, outside of the critical area. It is clear that the agreements signed on 23 August regarding cantonment and weapons free area in Kinshasa were violated. 

 

Following the announcement of the outcome of the first round of elections, fighting broke out between Kabila’s and Bemba’s private armies. The biggest threat now is that if the Bemba camp is not happy with the outcome of the elections, not only his army but also his supporters will take to the street. In Kinshasa, Bemba has some 68% of the voter support. This could lead to total chaos should urban battles break out between Bemba’s and Kabila’s armies. It is clear from what happened on 12 November in Kinshasa that Bemba does not have control over all elements of his army. In the next few days the actions of Kabila’s GSSP and his supporters, and Bemba’s army and supporters, will be a good indication of what we can expect after the results are made known. The ability of MONUC and EUFOR to police the situation will also be crucial to stability in Kinshasa in the next few weeks.       

 

Although the election results are due to be announced on 19 November, it is now thought likely that the announcement will be brought forward to 15 November.

 

Henri Boshoff, African Security Analysis Programme, ISS Tshwane (Pretoria)

1. MONUC. http://www.monuc.org/news.aspx?newsID=13062

2. David Lewis, Reuters, 12 November, 2006. http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L12878122.htm