South Africa: divisions in ANC lobbying ahead of Mangaung

As lobbying intensifies on the road to Mangaung, divisions within the African National Congress (ANC) are becoming more evident. Growing dissatisfaction with President Jacob Zuma’s ability to lead the organisation has divided the ANC into two camps, broadly termed the ‘national coalition’ and the ‘pro-change coalition’.

The ‘pro-change coalition’ is advocating for the removal of President Zuma as ANC president at the party’s electoral conference in December. According to this faction, he has failed to provide adequate leadership, as evidenced by his lack of will to fight corruption, the failure by the Department of Education to deliver textbooks, among other crises, and more recently, the killing of mineworkers by the police at Marikana. 

It was widely reported in national newspapers over the weekend that senior ANC provincial leaders from eight of the nine provinces and a number of National Executive Committee (NEC) members who support the pro-change coalition held an informal meeting in Sandton last week, at which all agreed to back Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe for the post of ANC president, with ANC stalwart Tokyo Sexwale as the party’s deputy president. This was an important step for the pro-change coalition because until then Sexwale had also been campaigning for the presidency. Had this not been agreed to, the pro-change coalition would have been split, which would have been to President Zuma’s advantage. Motlanthe has yet to announce if he will indeed run against President Zuma, as the NEC has agreed that nominations and leadership discussions will only formally start at the beginning of October. This, however, has not prevented intense lobbying on both sides and open displays of preference by various top ANC officials. Although Motlanthe has previously stated that he would only run for the position if President Zuma decided to step down after one term as president (a position from which President Zuma appears to have backtracked), Motlanthe has not disassociated himself from those lobbying on his behalf, which suggests that he may very well announce his candidacy in October. Nevertheless, he has played his cards close to his chest and is unlikely to accept the nomination if he does not think that he has a strong chance of beating President Zuma.

The pro-Zuma faction, or ‘national coalition’, has a simple campaign message focussing on organisational unity rather than attempting the far more difficult task of highlighting President Zuma’s strengths and achievements. They have stated that the status quo should remain intact, with President Zuma as ANC president and Motlanthe as his deputy. They make the argument that this will prevent destabilising the organisation, as had happened during the battle between President Zuma and former President Thabo Mbeki in the run-up to the ANC 2007 national conference in Polokwane. While pro-Zuma supporters are confident that they still have the upper hand, they do appear to be increasingly concerned by the ongoing and increasing statements made by a number of senior members about the lack of leadership in and poor performance of the ANC. It was reported that members of the national coalition also met over the weekend to strategise in the face of increasing criticism aimed at President Zuma and to contemplate reports that possible fractures are emerging in KwaZulu-Natal, President Zuma’s main support base and the province with the largest number of voting delegates at the national conference. Former National Police Commissioner Bheki Cele, who has a significant powerbase in KwaZulu-Natal, attended meetings held by the “pro-change coalition”. Cele is said to be deeply upset by his dismissal as police chief by President Zuma. The Sunday Tribune newspaper reported that, in an effort to maintain support for President Zuma in the provinces, ‘lucrative state tenders, worth hundreds of millions, have emerged as a massive electoral carrot and intimidation tool’. The article claimed that members contemplating voting against President Zuma were reminded that they would lose access to these tenders. Reportedly, senior ANC official John Block was told that if he supported President Zuma the corruption charges he is facing would be dropped, as was the case recently with two senior KwaZulu-Natal politicians who are vocally pro-Zuma. It is uncertain if these reports are true given that both sides are likely to misuse the media for their own ends, as had been the case in the previous leadership battle.

The battle for power within the ANC will only intensify over the next three months, with the antics of expelled ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema upping the ante. Malema has seized upon the lack of leadership in the growing mineworker revolt triggered by the Marikana tragedy to call for a mining revolution in support of nationalisation. He has addressed the striking Lonmin workers at least four times in the past week or so and has caused alarm by stating that he will be meeting with disgruntled soldiers of the South African National Defence Force to listen to their concerns. Most of these soldiers are likely to be those who were suspended from the military and are facing disciplinary action following their participation in an unruly protest at the Union Buildings in 2009. Although the Minister of Defence appeared to panic and play into Malema’s hands by placing military bases on high alert, it is unlikely that serving soldiers would be willing to risk their careers by disregarding the instruction not to attend this meeting. Malema appears to be trying to provoke President Zuma into taking some kind of action so that Malema can paint himself as a victim and President Zuma as being willing to abuse his power to persecute a challenger. This strategy worked well for President Zuma in his battle against Mbeki, as his supporters believed that the corruption charges that President Zuma faced were part of a conspiracy. This was despite the fact that President Zuma’s financial advisor had been found guilty and sentenced to 15 years in jail for corruption allegedly involving President Zuma. It is likely that he will continue to ignore Malema for the time being to avoid giving the impression that Malema still has influence. Malema, however, will continue to be a thorn in the side of President Zuma as he sends out a message that it is preferable to have him (Malema) inside rather than outside the ANC.

Compiled by the Conflict Prevention and Risk Analysis Division