Peace and Security Council Report No 38
This month our researchers in Addis Ababa and Nairobi have produced country analyses on Kenya, focusing on the 2013 elections, and Egypt, focusing on the events following the election of President Morsi. Two PSC Retrospective articles deal with the 19th African Union Summit that took place in Addis Ababa in July 2012.
The analysis of Kenya takes its cue from the aftermath of the 2007 election, which precipitated post-election violence in 2007 and 2008 and the indictment by the International Criminal Court (ICC) of alleged perpetrators of the violence, including two possible presidential contenders for the presidency in 2013.
The analyst points out that many socio-political and economic issues remain to be dealt with in Kenya that, if neglected, may lead to more election-related violence before and after the elections next year. The Mombasa Republican Council, with its demands for secession and instigation of Kenya’s Coastal people to boycott the 2013 elections, could stimulate further unrest. In addition,
the involvement of Kenyan troops in Somalia could lead to further attacks in Kenya by Somalia’s Al-Shabaab extremists and Kenyan-based sympathisers during the election period.
The likelihood of certain candidates being excluded from participation in the 2013 elections, as a result of legal impediments and court actions, could also create opportunities for further dissent and violence.
The analyst points out that the forthcoming 2013 elections are likely to result in a run-off election as no contender can be expected to achieve electoral support of 50% plus one in terms of the new election rules, a situation compounded by Kenya’s ethnic voting patterns.
On the positive side, recent Kenyan judicial reforms, the drafting of a new constitution and the country’s experience in its relations with the ICC might also help to dampen opportunities and incentives for election-related violence on the scale of that experienced in 2007-2008.
On the subject of Egypt the analyst points out that the country still lacks a constitution and a parliament and that the newly-elected President Morsi holds the legislative power and has oversight over the writing of the constitution. Although Morsi dismissed his deputy, Mohamad Tantawi, also head of Egypt’s armed forces and intelligence services, the latter will reportedly still serve as an advisor to the Egyptian president.
The analyst points out that the removal of Tantawi might heighten tensions between the Muslim Brotherhood and military leaders and that the move might also be seen as an attempt by a Muslim Brotherhood President to consolidate his power in the absence of a constitution or parliament.
The analyst also observes that over 48% of the Egyptian electorate rejected Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood at the recent elections for President. Noting that some three thousand Egyptians had protested against Morsi in Cairo on 24 August, the analyst he also pointed out that the April 6 Movement, which organised and led the revolution, regarded Morsi’s removal of Tantawi as an indication that it was a first step toward establishing a civilian state.
Although President Morsi has appointed a Coptic Christian and a woman academic to his cabinet, many feel that this is not enough. However the strongest test facing the new President will be his ability to revive the Egyptian economy in the face of gloomy economic forecasts by experts about the future state of the economy.
The analyst reminds us that the constitution drafting process has also involved the Egyptian public and that it is likely to be subjected to a public referendum in October 2012.
Finally, the analyst notes there has been some cause for concern among civil society organisations that President Morsi’s government has recently clamped down on the news media for allegedly insulting the president.
In addition to the two country analyses there are also two retrospective articles, written by researchers based in Addis Ababa, both focusing on the recent 19th AU Summit held in Addis Ababa in July 2012. The first article focuses on the AU Commission elections, the challenges facing the newly elected chair, the pursuit of intra-African trade and agenda topics debated and decided upon at the Summit. The second article focuses on AU gains and gaps in peace and security issues. The analyst identifies gains and gaps in peace and security and concludes that the political commitments and will of African states will ultimately remain the most important factors to drive peace and security in Africa.
Duke Kent-Brown (Editor)
