Peace and Security Council Report No 36

This month our researchers have produced country analyses on the Democratic Republic of Congo, focusing on developments in the eastern DRC, and Egypt, focusing on the election process. Two PSC retrospective articles deal respectively with the Peace Fund and the Annual consultative meeting of the AU PSC and UNSC.

A recent upsurge in violence in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has resulted in the displacement of tens of thousands of people. The flawed legislative and presidential elections of 2011 and the great difficulty experienced in trying to integrate the rebel armed militia, CNDP (Congrés national pour la défense du people), into the armed forces of the DRC, FARDC (Forces Armées de la République du Congo), have contributed to the violence in the eastern DRC. Subsequent desertions from FARDC by newly recruited CNDP soldiers, the formation of new rebel groups, new rebel alliances and the on-going disruptive and violent activities of independent rebel militias, plus the involvement of FDLR forces (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), have exacerbated the unstable situation in the region.

Added to this recipe for chaos is the possible deterioration in relations between the DRC and Rwanda as a result of allegations concerning Rwanda’s involvement in the eastern DRC.

A further factor fuelling insecurity in the region is a scramble by a variety of actors for the valuable natural resources of the eastern DRC.

Among the options proposed is the dispatch by the PSC of a fact-finding mission to the DRC and Rwanda to independently investigate and verify causes of insecurity in order to inform and plan relevant follow-up interventions.

The update on the Egyptian elections was written before the inauguration of the country’s new president and due to time constraints and publication deadlines it was not possible to also reflect on the implications of President Morsi’s inauguration speech. A follow-up analysis will need to await inclusion in a future edition.

The analysis focuses on the second round run-off election between presidential contenders Mohamed Morsi, of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), and former Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, running as an independent. The analyst concludes that a victory by Morsi presents a reduced threat of the kind of ‘fire’ that would have resulted in Egypt in the event of a Shafiq triumph.

The partiality of the Egyptian justice system; recently introduced draconian legislation emanating from the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF); the reduced powers and uncertain tenure of the newly elected president; the dissolution of the elected parliament; and the as yet undetermined nature and composition of the future constituent assembly that will ultimately develop a new constitution for Egypt, are factors that will ultimately affect the future course of Egypt’s political development.

The analyst also questions measures taken by the SCAF to entrench its influence and reduce the powers of the popularly elected president and suggests that the PSC could remind the authorities in Egypt that the AU doctrine prohibiting unconstitutional changes of government requires them to refrain from actions that undermine electoral democracy and interfere with the authority of the newly elected president.