Peace and Security Council Report No 35

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Egypt had the first round of its first democratic presidential elections amid the strong pressure on the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) to hand over power to civilian rule. However Egyptian society and the political sphere is very polarized on matters like the economy, the role of Islam, political freedoms, rights of minorities and the role of the military. The analysis on Egypt sheds light on the future of the third most populous state in Africa in the light of strained relations among a variety of political parties in Egypt.

Military interventions and political instability characterise recent developments in Guinea-Bissau. Post-coup elections have also revealed serious flaws in attempting to restore democratic order through constitutional provisions in Guinea-Bissau. The country has further demonstrated that in transitional societies or countries emerging from war, elections alone are insufficient to guarantee a well-functioning democracy. The Guinea-Bissau analysis identifies the challenges facing that country in its endeavours to create a credible democratic system and at the same time elaborate the future role of the military in Guinea-Bissau.

The trend toward extending the Al Qaeda franchise on the African continent is a real one. Terrorist groups currently active in Africa with known links to Al Qaeda are seeking ways to enhance such cooperation. The realization of an effective collaboration network between Al-Qaeda in the Maghreb (AQIM), Al-Shabaab and the Boko Haram would create a dangerous alliance of terrorist bands from the western to the eastern edge of the continent. The regional analysis on terrorism looks at this growing threat and proposes possible early policy response options that the AU PSC could employ to help curb such a challenge.

Two retrospective articles, one examining the Consultative meeting of the AU PSC and the EU Peace and Security Committee and relations between the two regional bodies, the other exploring developments concerning the Constitutional conferences in Somalia, are also part of the report.

Duke Kent-Brown (Editor)