Aug 2006 | Issue 007

Welcome to the seventh issue of the African Terrorism Bulletin, a quarterly newsletter produced by the Organised Crime and Money Laundering Programme of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). The aim is to provide balanced information, analysis and critical perspectives regarding news on terrorism and counter-terrorism strategies in Africa.

The information in this and future issues will be based on ‘open source’ information. Commenting on developments relating to terrorism remains a sensitive issue. The Bulletin endeavours to steer through the different agendas that form part of the discourse on terrorism in a critical and balanced way. Different sections of the Bulletin focus on terrorism in the news, state responses and critical perspectives. Most of the information focuses on Africa, yet, due to the transnational nature of the phenomenon, issues from further afield are not ignored.

Comments, contributions and critiques from our readers are encouraged. Please feel free to pass this newsletter on to anyone who you think may be interested in its content. To subscribe or comment, please send an e-mail to [email protected]

Truce in Uganda: On a knife’s edge
Taylor to be tried at The Hague
‘Harare Three’ released
Kenya renders terror suspect to British officials
Libya was quasi-nuclear power
‘Samoosa file’ may prove critical to Rashid case
Renewed violence in the Niger Delta
Somali UIC consolidates position amid fears of terror connections
South Africa set to introduce tough anti-mercenary measures
In the name of counter-terrorism
Zimbabwe ‘under martial law’
US secretly tracks global bank transfers
Mauritanian junta release terror suspects
Prosecuting pirates
Terror suspects arrested in Morocco
Somalia: A haven for terror?
ISS Cape Town Briefing: Critical Perspectives on the ‘War on Terrorism’
ISS Monograph: Money laundering experiences
New feature on ISS website: ISS Today

The major terrorism news story in recent weeks was the alleged terror plot in the United Kingdom (UK) at the beginning of August. The ‘airlines terror plot’ brought most of the developed world to a grinding halt as tough new security checks were implemented, notably in the UK and the United States (US). Yet the effects of the alleged plot were widespread and we were reminded of living in a globalised world. Alleged plots in distant places can impinge on the daily lives of many Africans.

When news of the alleged terror plot broke, the British Scotland Yard believed that the plan was to detonate explosive devices smuggled in hand luggage onto 10 aircraft. Twenty-two suspects were arrested in the UK. The threat level in the UK was raised to ‘critical’, which is the highest level. However, in the aftermath of the alleged plot little information has been made available. Most of the suspects have been released. Security measures at airports in the UK and elsewhere remain very tight: passengers on flights departing to or from the UK have to check in all of their luggage, including electronic equipment and, specifically, any cosmetic liquids and gels.

The developing global chaos caused by the alleged plot probably means that the ‘would-be’ terrorists - if they exist - seem to have partly achieved their objectives. With the threat of a terrorist attack lurking over their heads, prospective travellers will think twice about whether they wish to climb aboard a plane. And while the details of the plot remain scant, there is one consequence we can be most certain about: new and more draconian anti-terror measures are more than likely to follow in northern countries.

In fact, in the first days after the arrests of the 22 suspects, Pakistani and UK authorities looked at a possible connection to a Muslim charity. They questioned whether donations to earthquake relief for Kashmir last year had been funnelled back to the plotters in the UK. In addition, much speculation centred on a small charity, Crescent Relief, founded by the family of two plot suspects.

Charitable organisations are believed to play a role in the financing and operations of terrorist groupings. But with increasing scrutiny since the 9/11 attacks, the role of charities seems to be changing. Muslim charities’ freedom to operate has diminished and many have been closed down or banned. It remains to be seen whether the UK and other countries will introduce even tougher anti-terrorist financing measures in the wake of the alleged terror plot.

The big question is whether the general population feels more secure, while some of its basic human rights and civil rights are being compromised by tough anti-terrorism measures. This raises the old utilitarian debate about the greater good for all. In light of an imminent terror threat that could kill thousands of people, hardly anyone would bat an eyelid if saving those thousands entailed the temporary suspension of some civil rights. The keyword here is ‘temporary’.

African countries should remain vigilant in detecting terrorist activities; however, we should be wary of importing irrational anti-terror measures whose efficacy is yet to be proved. The alleged terror plot reminds us that we are not living in isolation from the rest of the world. 9/11 affected Africans as much as most other countries in that new - and often draconian - anti-terror laws were enacted.

Be sure to look out for “In the name of counter-terrorism” and “Zimbabwe ‘under martial law’” in our STATE RESPONSES section.

Truce in Uganda: On a knife’s edge
July/August 2006 – A truce that could spell the end of one of Africa’s longest and most brutal wars came into effect on 29 August 2006. Members of Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) have three weeks to assemble at two south Sudanese camps while negotiations continue to thrash out a final agreement. Both sides to the two-decade long conflict have agreed to cease hostilities and Uganda will guarantee the rebels, who number between 500 and 5000 (according to various estimates) safe passage to two assembly points in autonomous southern Sudan. According to the deal, the LRA fighters in northern Uganda will move to Owiny Ki Bul in Eastern Equatoria State on the eastern banks of the Nile River, while those in the DRC are to assemble on the western side of the Nile. They will stay at the sites for the duration of the talks under the protection, supervision and care of the government of southern Sudan, which is mediating the negotiations at its regional capital of Juba.

An unspecified number of women and children under rebel captivity will be freed in terms of the truce. The fighting has displaced nearly 2 million people. The LRA has declined to state the number of children and women currently in captivity in the DRC, southern Sudan and northern Uganda. If the truce holds, hundreds of children are expected to arrive at UN camps in Sudan over the next weeks.

Landmark peace talks had progressed haltingly between the Ugandan government and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) preceding the truce. The peace negotiations were made possible due to Kampala ignoring international criticism and offering full amnesty to LRA commanders, otherwise indicted for war crimes by the International Criminal Court (ICC). However, Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni noted that amnesty would be conditional on the LRA’s leader, Joseph Kony, reacting positively to the process and abandoning terrorism. Importantly, Kampala rejected early calls by the LRA for a truce, arguing that a peace settlement had to be agreed upon prior to any ceasefire. The government likewise had threatened to attack LRA camps in the remote north-eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) if negotiations had failed.

The process started on 14 July but early progress was limited because of the LRA’s leaders unwillingness to attend talks in Juba, in the autonomous South Sudan, for fear of being arrested and sent to The Hague. Lower-ranking LRA members met Ugandan government officials while the LRA leadership remained in the DRC. Kony continued to rebuff calls by Sudanese mediators for more senior LRA members to attend the talks and to give the delegation greater decision-making power. He persisted in calling for a ceasefire during a break in talks and, just prior to their resumption, declared a unilateral ceasefire. However, Kampala continued to argue for a comprehensive agreement due to the LRA having used previous truces to rearm. In turn, LRA negotiators walked out of the talks, refusing to proceed until the government declared an end to hostilities. Negotiations were deadlocked. Then, in a further turn of events, after the killing of a senior LRA commander by the Ugandan army and the intervention of South Sudanese President Salva Kiir, the LRA announced that it had agreed to continue talks. Meanwhile, the Ugandan government presented its conditions for a ceasefire. These included the release of all women and children held captive by the LRA and full disclosure of information regarding the LRA’s forces, its members and inventories of its arms, ammunition and other military equipment within seven days. Back in Juba, the LRA countered by demanding that South Africa co-mediate the talks and that the government reveal the locations and strength of the Ugandan army and militias and assemble them for demobilization. Kampala rejected both demands.

This brutal war was notorious for practices such as the cutting off of noses, lips and ears and the abduction of thousands of children to serve as soldiers and s ex slaves by the LRA.
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the New Vision article

Taylor to be tried at The Hague
20 June 2006 – The former President of Liberia, Charles Taylor, was flown to The Hague to stand trial for war crimes, crimes against humanity and violations of international human rights. At the request of the Special Court for Sierra Leone, it was decided that Taylor would be tried at the ICC in the Netherlands. It was widely feared that Taylor’s trial would reignite regional instability if held in Freetown. Should the former warlord be convicted, he will be incarcerated in Britain, which has stated its preparedness to take responsibility for Taylor’s likely imprisonment. Importantly, only the courts and jail of the ICC will be used, with all proceedings being conducted by officials from the Sierra Leonean Court. Taylor is held in the same maximum security detention facility as former Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic and now awaits his trial, which is due to begin in early 2007.
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Download the ISS paper “The trial of Charles Taylor: Conflict prevention, international law and an impunity-free Africa”
Read the story in the last African Terrorism Bulletin

‘Harare Three’ released
2 July 2006 –Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has pardoned the ‘Harare Three’, who were sentenced to death for murder and sabotage in November 1988. Kevin Woods, Michael Smith and Philip Conjwayo were released from Harare Central Prison on 1 July 2006. The three Zimbabwean citizens were sentenced to death for the murder of Obed Mwanza while they were working for the apartheid government. Mwanza was hired to drive a car to a house occupied by the African National Congress (ANC) in Bulawayo, in January 1988. However, unbeknownst to him, the car was wired with a bomb. On his arrival, the bomb was detonated, killing Mwanza and injuring three ANC members. The Zimbabwean Supreme Court later commuted the death sentences to life in prison. The three were pardoned on medical grounds. Conjwayo, 73, suffers from cancer and Woods, 53, from a heart condition. While Conjwayo decided to remain in Zimbabwe, Woods and Smith immediately left for South Africa.
Read the Sunday Independent article
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the transcript of a Carte Blanche interview with Kevin Woods

Kenya renders terror suspect to British officials
22 July 2006 – The Kenyan government has handed a man suspected of terrorism over to UK officials. Ismael Rufai, a British national, was arrested in Mombassa and taken to Nairobi, where he was held and questioned for two days by the Anti-Terrorism Police Unit. He was then collected by the Metropolitan Police and flown out of the country. Government officials initially denied any knowledge of the deportation and then claimed that Rufai’s arrest was related not to terrorism but to immigration issues. Activists and family members insist that Rufai does not have links with terrorists and that he has been living in the country legally.

Human rights activists subsequently accused the government of ill treatment of terror suspects. Activists alleged that the government was hiding behind the Global War on Terror (GWOT) to intimidate innocent people. Local Muslims have likewise called for the scrapping of the Anti-Terrorism Police Unit, which they hold responsible for the harassment and intimidation of Muslims.
Read the Nation article on allafrica.com (subscription needed)

Libya was quasi-nuclear power
25 July 2006 – Libya was on the verge of building a nuclear bomb prior to abandoning its programme to produce weapons of mass destruction in December 2003. Libyan leader Moammar Qaddafi announced that this was no longer a secret and that both the US and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) were well aware of the situation. He further noted that in the name of Arab nationalism, socialism and revolution, Libya had spent vast amounts of money on military projects and supporting various terrorist groups throughout the world. As a result, resources were not used for civilian projects and reconstruction. However, with the lifting of US economic sanctions, renewed diplomatic ties with Washington and the removal of Libya from the US`s list of states that sponsor terrorism, Libya is set to experience a flood of Western commercial interest. This is particularly so with regards to Libya’s potential oil reserves, the largest in Africa.
Read the Mail & Guardian story
Read the story in the last African Terrorism Bulletin

‘Samoosa file’ may prove critical to Rashid case
28 August 2006 – On Friday 25 August, the case of the disappearance of Pakistani national Khalid Rashid returned on appeal before the Pretoria High Court. It was claimed that the so-called samoosa file would be pivotal in the outcome of the case. Belonging to the Department of Home Affairs, the file found its way into a food hamper belonging to a friend of Rashid’s lawyer, Zehir Omar, during an earlier hearing. The file is said to contain evidence suggesting that Rashid was arrested on request of British Intelligence, and that the Home Affairs had falsified documents in order to mislead the court. The Department has failed to comply fully with court orders to provide details of Rashid`s disappearance. It has argued that the arrest was a routine deportation and did not amount to an unlawful rendition. It has likewise argued that Rashid had terrorist links that threatened South African security, and that he entered the country illegally.

Omar requested that the court order an investigation and rule that the persons involved be prosecuted for crimes against humanity. He argued that the correct procedures for deportation were not followed, and that Rashid was forcibly removed after having been arrested without a warrant, denied access to a lawyer and held incommunicado for five days. Along with Anton Katz, representing the University of the Witwatersrand Law Clinic, Omar applied for the arrest, detention and deportation of Rashid to be declared unlawful. Lawyers representing Home Affairs argued that the Department had followed all the rules applicable when deporting an illegal immigrant to his country of origin. The court reserved judgement on the grounds that it needed time to consider all the evidence.

In a letter to South African President Thabo Mbeki, Amnesty International called for the government to establish an independent inquiry into Rashid`s disappearance. The group expressed concern that South African officials participated in the unlawful handover of Rashid to Pakistani authorities eight months ago. According to the international human rights watchdog, Pakistani security and intelligence agencies have a history of incommunicado detention, torture and disappearances with regards to terror suspects. Under the Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, states that participate in transfers to countries where there is a risk of such abuse are complicit in it. The organisation argued that South Africa must ensure that its anti-terror measures comply with international law.
Read the Amnesty International Press Release
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the IOL article
Read the story in the last African Terrorism Bulletin
Download the United Nations Convention Against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment

Renewed violence in the Niger Delta
July/August 2006 – Acts of terror across the Niger Delta have intensified since the beginning of the year, threatening N igeria’s reliability as a major oil producer. Incidences of kidnappings of foreign oil workers, sabotage of oil installations, car bombings and clashes between rebels and government forces have increased sharply. At the beginning of July a Dutch oil worker was abducted following protests demanding jobs and investment in Bayelsa state communities. Within a week, twin explosions hit installations belonging to the Italian Agip oil company, blowing up two pipelines. Two weeks later the company`s Ogboinbiri flow station was raided, resulting in eight N igerian soldiers and 16 employees being held hostage. Less than a week later, a German and three Filipino oil workers were abducted from Port Harcourt and Bonny Island, respectively, followed by the kidnapping of two Norwegians and two Ukrainians from an offshore supply vessel operated by American-owned Trico Supply. In most cases, hostages have been released unharmed. However, there is growing concern that the large monetary sums paid as ransom for kidnapped oil workers are fostering a lucrative business in hostage-taking.

As noted in a recent International Crisis Group (ICG) report, violence, environmental damage, underdevelopment, corruption and the failure to establish credible government institutions have resulted in growing frustration among local communities in the Niger Delta. Despite oil revenues of $45 billion in 2005, large parts of the Delta remain without electricity, water, schools, clinics and sufficient employment opportunities. This status quo has boosted support for rebel groups such as the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). Importantly, MEND is said to be increasingly acting as an umbrella organisation for other rebel groupings in the region. They are united by their shared goal of local resource control, which aims to see the impoverished peoples of the Delta acquire their share of the region’s oil wealth. MEND has destroyed pipelines, is responsible for the majority of foreign oil workers who are taken hostage, regularly raids oil facilities and has attacked security forces and industry infrastructure.

The consequences of instability in the Delta are escalating in human as well as economic terms. Since the crisis escalated, crude oil production has been cut by 25%. If not addressed, it is feared that the conflict could potentially lead to the shutdown of the oil industry in the Delta, from where the majority of N igeria’s crude oil originates. The government has largely downplayed the seriousness of the unrest, dismissing the rebels as mere criminals. More recently, though, the military launched a crackdown against rebels in the region. Houses have been searched, hideouts raided and approximately 2000 suspected militants arrested. According to a military spokesperson, the offensive is aimed at driving the ‘bandits’ out and will be ongoing.
Read IOL article
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read Mail & Guardian article
Read the BBC News report
Download the International Crisis Group report, “The swamps of insurgency: N igeria’s Delta unrest”

Somali UIC consolidates position amid fears of terror connections
July/August 2006 – Since defeating secular warlords and gaining control over Mogadishu in June 2006, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) has expanded its control and surrounded Baidoa, the sole stronghold of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG). In the ongoing tussle for power, the TFG replaced the previous Transitional National Government (TNG) while the UIC has ascended as a rival legislature to the impotent TFG. It is important to note that the TNG included members of the UIC.

With a well-trained militia, the UIC has shown a moderate stance with promises of law, order and security. However, the rise of a few ‘hardline’ ideologues has alarmed both regional neighbours and members of the international community. There is concern among some that Somalia will spiral into a Taliban-like Afghanistan and become a safe haven for international terrorists. Most notably, Ethiopia, a close US ally in the ‘War on Terror’ in the Horn, considers the UIC a direct terrorist threat. As a close associate of Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf, Ethiopia has deployed soldiers around Baidoa to defend the fragile government against further attacks. The US, which provided aid to the secular warlords, has further accused the UIC leader, Hassan Dahir Aweys, of both having connections with al-Qaeda and of shielding al-Oaeda operatives responsible for the bombing of two of its embassies in 1998. The alleged link of the UIC to al-Qaeda is tenuous, as supporters of the coalition are striving for Somali nationalism and not global jihad.

In response to Ethiopian troop deployments, the UIC broke off peace talks with the TFG, declaring that it would not attend them until Ethiopian troops had left Somali soil. Meanwhile, the TFG itself is in tatters. After 40 ministerial resignations in opposition to the presence of Ethiopian troops, President Yusuf dissolved the cabinet and appointed a new, smaller cabinet. The UIC has emerged as the most powerful political and military force in the south of the country. Should the UIC take Baidoa, it will control a strategically vital arc of territory bordering Ethiopia and Kenya.
Download the International Crisis Group report, “Can the Somali crisis be contained?”
Read the BBC News report
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the story in the last African Terrorism Bulletin

South Africa set to introduce tough anti-mercenary measures
30 August 2006 - South Africa is poised to toughen its already stringent laws against citizens serving as mercenaries in foreign wars and conflict situations. The Prohibition of Mercenary Activities and Regulation of Certain Activities in Country of Armed Conflict Bill will ban those South African citizens who are not serving in the national armed forces from participating in foreign conflicts in any capacity, be it as soldiers, security personnel, pilots or other security-orientated professions. The South African National Assembly has approved the Bill but it will have to pass through the second chamber of Parliament before being signed into law by South African President Thabo Mbeki. Mosiuoa Lekota, the South African Minister of Defence, who introduced the parliamentary debate on the measure, called mercenaries “killers for hire”, the scourge of poor areas of the world, especially in Africa. Mercenaries have directly affected conflicts all over Africa, keeping the political balance in favour of their paymasters and often subverting democracy and good governance. Critics claim that the legislation is too tough and that it would hamper legitimate humanitarian operations. If ratified, the bill could affect thousands of South Africans working for private security companies across Africa, Afghanistan and Iraq.
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the ISS Today “Anti-mercenary bill will hamper humanitarian work”
Download the Prohibition of Mercenary Activity Bill

In the name of counter-terrorism
July/August 2006 – There is increasing concern that America’s GWOT has legitimated and entrenched the abuse of human rights in Africa. Prior to the GWOT, many states had dubious human rights records and were widely criticized for their violations. However, as allies of the US in the GWOT, abusive governments are able to suppress opposition and violate rights with impunity under the auspices of ‘counter-terrorism’.

Algeria is one such government. According to a recent Amnesty International report, torture and ill-treatment continue to be used by the Algerian Department for Information and Security (DRS). The DRS is an intelligence agency that operates under the authority of senior army command. It specializes in the interrogation of individuals suspected to have information about local armed groups and terrorist activities. Such individuals are detained in undisclosed locations, often for prolonged periods of time, and are denied any contact with the outside world. There are persistent reports of torture and ill-treatment in detention, including beatings, electric shocks, and forced ingestion of dirty water, urine or chemicals. In February 2006, laws aimed at fostering national reconciliation extended an unconditional amnesty to members of the security forces who had committed crimes under international law. In terms of the laws it is a criminal offence to publicly criticize the conduct of the security forces. Nevertheless, as a noted ally in the GWOT, the US has strengthened co-operation with Algeria, particularly as part of the Trans-Sahara Counter-Terrorism Initiative. This initiative aims in part to strengthen the capacity of Algerian security forces to combat terrorism in the Sahara region.

The Civil Monitor for Human Rights, an Egyptian NGO, has argued that the abuse of rights and lack of freedoms under dictatorial regimes gave rise to global terrorism. The very conditions under which contemporary terrorism emerged are now being intensified through persistent rights violations and countries’ newfound legitimacy as US allies. Problematically, this consequence of US counter-terror policy in Africa is nullifying the GWOT on the continent.
Download the Amnesty International Report “Unrestrained powers: Torture by Algeria’s military security”
Read the Mail & Guardian article
Read the Zmag article

Zimbabwe ‘under martial law’
27 July 2006 – Zimbabwe’s Suppression of Foreign and International Terrorism Bill is expected to pass into law when parliament resumes in August. The Bill was introduced earlier this year and has been widely criticized as a means through which President Robert Mugabe can further consolidate his grip on power and silence opposition. One of three bills aimed at quashing dissent, the Terrorism Bill seeks to restrict civic and opposition groups by branding any resistance to the regime as terrorism. In addition to curtailing basic freedoms and jailing critics, it makes it possible for anyone convicted of working to overthrow the regime to be imprisoned for life. Alois Chaumba, the national director of the Catholic Commission for Justice and Peace, has stated that the Bill will effectively place Zimbabwe under martial law.
Read the Institute for War & Peace Reporting article
Download the Suppression of Foreign and International Terrorism Bill, 2006
Read the story in the last African Terrorism Bulletin

US secretly tracks global bank transfers
26 June 2006 - The US Treasury Department has secretly been probing international financial records of money transfers between banks worldwide, which are recorded by the global routing network, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). SWIFT messages typically include names and account numbers of customers who are sending or receiving funds. The controversial Terrorist Finance Tracking Programme, which is run from the Central Intelligence Agency and overseen by the Treasury Department, has been going on for a number of years without the knowledge of most banks or their customers. It is supposed to monitor the activities of suspected terrorists and map terrorist webs. The programme forms part of aggressive measures adopted by the Bush administration since 9/11. In a major departure from traditional methods of obtaining financial records, the Treasury Department uses a little-known power - administrative subpoenas - to collect data from the SWIFT network. The subpoenas are secret and are not reviewed by judges or grand juries. Foreign jurisdictions are not informed of this.
Read the Los Angeles Times article
Read the ISS Today “USA: Treasury secretly tries to track terror financing”

Mauritanian junta release terror suspects
29 July 2006 – Numerous Islamist prisoners have been released since the ruling military junta came to power in a bloodless coup last August. Most recently, eight men suspected of belonging to the Algerian based Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) were released after 14 months in detention. The ousted former President, Maaouya Ould Sid’Ahmed Taya, is accused of having taken advantage of the anti-terrorism climate to crack down on moderate Islamist politicians. Nevertheless, the country’s new leaders noted that they are committed to fighting terrorism and that other suspected GSPC members remain in prison. The US has listed the GSPC as a terrorist organization.
Read the Gulf Times article

Prosecuting pirates
3 August 2006 – A Kenyan magistrate ruled that 10 Somali pirates captured in January are to be tried in Mombasa, where they were brought after having been captured by the US Navy in international waters. The men stand accused of holding an Indian ship and its 16-man crew for ransom. Despite having diminished somewhat since last year, piracy off the coast of Somalia remains common. More recently, a South Korean fishing trawler was released after a ransom of several hundred thousand US dollars was paid. The relative decline in piracy has been attributed to foreign naval patrols and particularly the anti-piracy stance of the Islamist militia now in control of Mogadishu.
Read the BBC News report

Terror suspects arrested in Morocco
7 August 2006 – Moroccan security services are reported to have broken up a terrorist network intending to proclaim jihad in the north-east of the country. According to the state news agency, security personnel arrested 44 members of the Jammaat Ansar El Mehdi group. Authorities simultaneously seized explosives, propaganda material and laboratory equipment. The arrest is the latest round-up of terrorist suspects in Morocco. The government claims to have similarly quashed more than 50 terrorist cells with more than 2000 members since the 2003 suicide bombings in Casablanca. However, rights groups argue that an increasing number of people are being wrongfully swept up in the state`s ever widening counter-terror campaign. The campaign is said to have involved more than a thousand arrests (some groups say up to 3000), massive abuses and alleged torture.
Read the Reuters article
Read the Mail & Guardian article

Somalia: A haven for terror?
The recent success of the UIC has intensified concerns in the US camp that the otherwise failed Somali state may become an al-Qaeda haven. However, despite conventional wisdom arguing that failed states make for good terrorist havens, analysts disagree as to whether this is really the case. The following commentary looks at some of the predominantly Western views on the topic.

Failed states are defined by a lack of an effective single ruling power which is capable of asserting control or of extending its authority over and throughout the given territory. Instead, there typically exist a number of warring factions or warlord militias, which compete for control over sources of revenue and territory. There is no regulating governing body to protect state borders and monitor the movement of peoples and trade across and within those borders. In a climate characterized by lawlessness and armed conflict, failed states are said to become production and transit hubs for illegal trades and to provide safe haven for international terrorists. Failed states are considered to provide terrorists with refuge, access to illegal markets by which weapons and supplies can be sourced and bases from which to operate, plan and train new recruits to target developed countries. As such, the US considers failed states to be a critical threat to its strategic interests, which usually involve the control over oil reserves. For the past 15 years, Somalia has constituted a failed state and has been monitored consistently for signs of becoming a safe haven for al-Qaeda. Given its geographical proximity to the Arabian Gulf and a number of Islamic movements, Somalia has been considered a likely refuge for international terrorists. In the wake of 9/11 and the invasion of Afghanistan, concerns about Somalia being inundated by fleeing jihadists rose dramatically. These fears have since been compounded by the UIC`s taking of Mogadishu and comparisons are being made between the African state and Afghanistan.

But not all analysts agree with this view. Menkhaus holds that terrorists find failed states largely inhospitable and instead prefer corrupt weak states, such as Pakistan, Yemen, Kenya and Guinea, or developed states, such as Germany, the UK and South Africa. In one of our previous newsletters, we reported that empirical data had shown that terrorist groupings are more likely to operate from within open and multi-racial societies, such as South Africa, with a huge population of immigrants, well-developed financial and banking sectors and modern communication and infrastructure. Failed states render terrorists exposed in ungoverned areas, where there are few political impediments deterring foreign counter-terror forces from launching operations into such territories, or contracting out the hunt for terrorists to local warlords. With few foreigners residing in failed states, there is likewise little opportunity to blend in with local communities. In contrast, weak states offer a degree of protection through corrupt, cumbersome bureaucracies and security services and large, poorly policed local-foreign communities. It is likewise far more complicated to conduct covert counter-terrorism operations in a sovereign state. In turn, terrorist networks operational in the region have tended towards South Africa, Kenya and Tanzania rather than Somalia.

However, as the ICG reports, the coming into power of the Islamists follows the failure of the TFG to evolve into a genuine government and to extend its authority and control throughout the country. Its narrow support base and inability to rule beyond Baidoa resulted in a political vacuum now filled by the Islamists. Importantly, Islamist rule has been won through blood as the UIC has forged and extended its political and military authority over the territory. However, there being Islamists in power in a failed state does not necessarily make it an al-Qaeda haven. Whether or to what degree the UIC is willing tolerate terrorist elements is as yet uncertain.

While there have indeed been indications of greater radicalization among the UIC leadership, Somalia is a country whose politics are determined first and foremost by clan relations rather than religious ideology. While clan authorities may have supported the UIC’s coming into power, intra-clan animosity and tensions between the UIC and clan authorities are endemic. Clan leaders have already demanding the removal of shari’a militias from their neighbourhoods. To maintain unity, entrench its control and prevent instability, the UIC will have to learn to manage clan fault lines rather than aggravating them.

Therefore, the assertion that failed states make good terrorist havens is questionable. Whether Somalia will become a haven for terrorism will depend on the UIC rather than it being a necessary consequence of the coalition’s ascendancy to power. The question perhaps is whether the UIC will opt to tolerate an al-Qaeda presence or moderate its stance to maintain the support of the clans.
Download the Brookings Policy Brief “The new National Security Strategy: Focus on failed states”
Read the allafrica.com article
Read the Voice of America article
Download the US Strategic Studies Institute report “Counterterrorism in African failed states: Challenges and potential solutions”
Download the ICG report “Can the Somali crisis be contained?”

ISS Cape Town Briefing: Critical Perspectives on the ‘War on Terrorism’
14 September 2006
The Organised Crime and Money Laundering Programme of the ISS in Cape Town is hosting Dr Steven Best, who will speak on “Critical Perspectives on the ‘War on Terrorism’ and Implications for Democracy and Social Movements” on 14 September 2006. The seminar will be held in the ISS Cape Town boardroom, from 11h00 to 13h00. Please confirm your attendance with Nobuntu Mtwa on +27-(0)21-461 7211 or [email protected]
More details available here

ISS Monograph: Money laundering experiences
This monograph is a study of money laundering trends in East and Southern Africa. Some of the responses to money laundering and terrorist financing are considered. Questions of professional confidentiality and the recovery of proceeds of crime are also addressed.
Download the Monograph
Download the chapter “Flogging a dead horse: The incongruity of measures against terrorist financing in Southern Africa”

New feature on ISS website: ISS Today
The ISS has introduced a commentary, entitled ISS Today, on its website. It is updated daily and provides analysis on topical issues.
Read terrorism-related ISS Today
4 July 2006: A Somali Taliban?
31 July 2006: Who is afraid of the Islamic state?
11 August 2006: New terror threat - new anti-terror measures?
25 August 2006: Spotlight on Muslim charities

Please inform us of upcoming terrorism-related meetings, seminars, workshops, conferences, publications and other developments by sending a message to [email protected]

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) is an applied policy non-profit research organisation with a focus on human security issues on the African continent.

This newsletter is produced by the Organised Crime and Money Laundering Programme of the Institute for Security Studies and funded by the Royal Norwegian Government.

Annette Hübschle (Researcher: Organised Crime and Money Laundering Programme) – [email protected]
Anita Gossmann (ISS Research Intern)

Institute for Security Studies
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