Volume 19 Number 3

Features

Restoring peace or waging war: security agencies’ management of ethno-religious uprisings in Nigeria
A O Adesoji

From the 1982 Maitatsine Uprising to the 2009 Kala Kato Riot, Nigeria has been bedevilled by ethno-religious uprisings with devastating human and material losses. In almost all these crises the police and the military have featured prominently as agencies tasked with the responsibility of maintaining law and order and suppressing insurrection. While it was not alleged that they precipitated some of these risings perhaps in their attempts to stem or nip them in the bud, they have been accused of escalating the conflict either by their slow and inadequate responses, their partisanship and their arbitrary responses, or by their slackness in managing the crises and their aftermath. However, but for their efforts the security basis of the Nigerian state would have been considerably compromised by religious fundamentalism given the level of preparedness of the groups involved, their resistance and, more importantly, the recurrent nature of the uprisings. This article reflects on the management of ethno-religious uprisings in Nigeria by the police and the military. It considers the nature of the security agencies’ involvement in the crises and examines the factors both within the agencies and in the larger Nigerian society which have aided or hindered their effective management of the conflicts.

Informal cross-border trade and arms smuggling along the Uganda–Rwanda border
Nelson Alusala

The article evaluates the security challenges that are likely to occur along international borders in East Africa with the advent of the East African Community Common Market in July 2010. In an attempt to illustrate the porosity of borders and the likelihood that criminals could take advantage of the situation, the author describes the ease with which transnational crime could thrive (in the absence of efficient border security measures) under the guise of informal cross-border trade that derives its basis largely from the customs and historical linkages in the region. Border towns in the region are considered zones of risk but also opportunities for quick money-making ventures and deals that tend to attract a variety of criminals. While the danger is not alarmingly high, there is a likelihood that with the opening up of the East African Community to the free movement of goods and people, criminals will exploit this freedom to commit crimes such as human trafficking, drug smuggling and moving terrorists and contraband goods unless mechanisms are put in place to curtail these activities. Should this not happen, the mission of the East African Community could be jeopardised.

Human security in pastoralist areas of Eastern Africa
Leandro Oduor Ogola

Pastoralist groups in Eastern Africa are extremely vulnerable as a result of intercommunity conflicts, the harsh terrain, and unfavourable climatic conditions. They have been neglected by successive regimes on matters of socio-economic development. At present pastoralist areas in Eastern Africa have the lowest literacy rates and insufficient health care facilities. This article interrogates the historical relationship between governments, humanitarian groups and pastoralists. It notes with great concern that pastoralists have been branded as hunger-stricken populations with insignificant economic potential that can be harnessed from their day-to-day livelihood. They are treated as sedentary populations who need a constant supply of relief food to keep going. In order to reverse these misconceptions, the article places emphasis on mitigating the threats of intra-community conflicts, diseases and natural disasters through investment in social schemes and infrastructure in order to open up the areas for service provision. Indeed, for a majority of the pastoralists, insecurity comes not so much from traditional security concerns, but from human insecurity concerns about their survival, preservation of their lifestyle and well-being in a day-to-day context.

Reshaping boundaries: regional inequality and state reforms in Angola
Inge Ruigrok

Even though the Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, MPLA) managed to take firm control of the state as the war ended in 2002, this article contends that its hegemony is not absolute. At the fringes of the state administration, emerging regional elites have established associations that seek to provide a remedy against the centralised system, which essentially deprives regions of political influence and sufficient economic resources. As in many other countries on the African continent, political identities that were legally enforced and institutionally reproduced in colonial times have hardly been transcended in the postcolonial period. Even if the associations’ influence today does not yet reach further than bringing some insecurity to an otherwise secure polity dominated by the MPLA, the associations could play a role in reinforcing strong regional solidarity and give political expression to feelings of exclusion. Such sentiments could in turn lead to an increase of exclusivity ideas about citizenship, or even xenophobic violence. Much will depend on the strategies of the MPLA, and to what extent it will accommodate these emergent forces in the post-war era, not the least through the current sub-national, state reforms.

South Africa’s threat environment: a guide for the National Planning Commission
Deane-Peter Baker

The mandate of South Africa’s recently appointed National Planning Commission includes addressing ‘defence and security matters’. This article seeks to outline the central elements of the threat environment facing South Africa in the foreseeable future. It is argued that South Africa faces no meaningful existential threat from conventional military forces but that its security forces will need to be prepared to address possible raids and attacks by conventional military forces both on home soil and on vital interests beyond the nation’s borders. Other threats highlighted include the threats posed by potential insurgencies, by terrorism, and by crime, social unrest and banditry. Also addressed is the danger of so-called hybrid threats, in which two or more of the single threat types outlined here are combined. Finally, the article challenges the National Planning Commission to rethink South Africa’s policy on peace operations in the light of the need to ensure the safety and security of the nation’s citizenry.

Africa Watch

Guinea-Bissau: Why a stabilisation force may be useful
David Zounmenou

Over the years, Guinea-Bissau has become the prototype of a failed state. With the double assassinations of President Bernado Nino Viera and Army Chief of Staff Tagme Na Wae, the last two years were rich in political drama. Subsequent political processes do not seem to be having any impact on the return of the country to political normalcy, however. The call by President Malam Bacai Sanhá on the international community to send a stabilisation force to his country is widely commended. Such a force could well help create an environment that is conducive to the successful completion of post-conflict reforms. It is an opportunity that the African Union in conjunction with the Economic Community Of West African States and Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries should seriously consider against the backdrop of the decision by the European Union and the United States to reconsider their involvement in Guinea-Bissau.

Towards African ‘club governance’?
Paul-Simon Handy

The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African supranational organisations aimed at promoting and implementing common norms and principles has transformed the landscape of African governance. Based on a consensus model that was previously geared towards the fight against colonialism and apartheid, these organisations mostly operate under the principle of equality among states. Whereas this has contributed to forging a strong symbolism of African unity, the consensual model has unfortunately not been able to endow African regional organisations with the necessary persuasive and coercive capacity it needs to enforce the huge body of norms they produce. This article argues that club governance could be a solution. It advocates the formation of an informal club where African major powers will gather to exchange views on continental and global issues.

Essays

Relief workers in African conflict zones: neutrals, targets or unlawful participants?
Shannon Bosch

Relief workers deployed in conflict-torn African states are especially vulnerable to a variety of risks, including being taken hostage, being injured as part of collateral damage, or being detained. This piece focuses on how international humanitarian law (IHL) responds to the acts that give rise to these particular risks, whether they are perpetrated by state offi cials or non-state organised armed groups acting in the African context. In unpacking the legal protections available to relief workers it is crucial to understand the status that relief workers enjoy under IHL in situations of armed conflict. Any discussion of IHL status necessitates an inquiry into the concept of ‘direct participation in hostilities’ and the limitations that this prohibition places on civilians. Finally the author discusses the three main risks facing relief workers: being taken hostage, being targeted as part of collateral damage, and being detained, and explores the legal implications of these particular risks for relief workers in the African context.

Operationalising the SADC Mutual Defence Pact: prospects and constraints
Sadiki Maeresera and Ufo Okeke Uzodike

This article focuses on analysis and recommendations that could assist the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) with the further development of policy frameworks for collaborative security and mutual defence. The Mutual Defence Pact (MDP) provides a legal framework designed to enhance collaborative defence cooperation to deal with issues ranging from aggression of a member state to cooperation in the field of joint training and information sharing. However, we argue in this article that factors such as the relative hesitancy in terms of political will, state sovereignty, bilateral relations existing between individual member states and those outside the subregion as well as the lack of full ratification of the pact and the description of the policy framework and its salient features are challenges to the operationalisation of the MDP. The article also reviews its implementation status, critically assesses outstanding issues (challenges and opportunities), and makes recommendations regarding the management of the issues. The research focuses mainly on the conceptual and comparative analysis level with the aim of developing policy options. Issues related to collective security, mutual defence and global collective security are also examined through an analysis of key policy documents and statements from SADC and other (sub)regional organisations, as well as the United Nations.

Commentaries

A ‘transparent gold’ rush?
Nir Kalron

The signing of a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters – signed last May in Kampala by Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania – has the potential of derailing relations with Sudan and Egypt. According to the latter countries, this new agreement replaces the 1959 Nile agreement – that awarded them with 90 per cent control over the Nile water – giving other Nile Basin countries the possibility to implement water-related projects in agriculture and energy. This new development, according to Egypt and Sudan, places their water level security in jeopardy. Furthermore, the use of land grabs and water consumption for food security by wealthy foreign countries contributes to the sensitive situation the nine Nile Basin countries are now facing. Water is a red line when it comes to Egypt and Sudan and the future of the whole region depends on whether this line will be crossed.

The Nile crisis comes to the boil
Martin Plaul

A crisis is emerging in the Nile Basin, where some 300 million people in Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi rely on the Nile directly or indirectly. Egypt and Sudan wish to preserve a regime based on treaties drawn up during the colonial era that allocated the vast majority of the Nile’s water to them. Countries upstream are determined to challenge this. In 1999 the countries using the river formed the Nile Basin Initiative to try to resolve these differences. More than a decade of negotiations failed to break the impasse. In May Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda decided to wait no longer and signed a new treaty, without the consent of Egypt and Sudan. The signatories have given the other Nile Basin countries one year to join the pact. For Egypt, which relies on the Nile for 95 per cent of its water, this is a question of life or death. Egypt has, in the past, indicated it will go to war if its share of the Nile is reduced. Talks continue, but the impasse is driving the region towards a crisis to which there is no easy resolution.

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