Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance
blurb:isstoday:09042008zim
Zimbabwe`s Future in the Balance
Zimbabwe’s harmonised election, which saw presidential, senatorial, parliamentary and local government elections being held simultaneously, took place peacefully on 29 March 2008. This watershed plebiscite was anticipated to be a poll that would radically change the political landscape of this troubled country. More than a week has passed since the initial votes were cast with no clear indication of the future trajectory of Zimbabwe. Parliamentary and senatorial results trickled out during the week but the all important presidential results have been withheld by the Zimbabwe Election Commission (ZEC), this amidst growing speculation of the doctoring of the expression of the will of the people in favour of the will of ZANU-PF.
Most observers’ attention has been narrowly focused on trying to establish the causes of the delay of the release of the results. The main opposition party, the MDC Tsvangirai, has noted that Zanu-PF is preparing to unleash a reign of terror on its citizens and has called for international intervention. They have also appealed for an urgent injunction to the high court to compel the ZEC to release the results. Amidst wide media speculation on the results, the behind-the-scenes political manoeuvring, and the anxiety that has gripped the local and international communities, we must maintain a focus on how to transcend the deepening quagmire that has gripped this country for the better part of this decade.
The parliamentary and senatorial results reveal a society that is politically torn down the middle. This polarisation has been evident since the elections in 2000. The divisions coalesce around two dominant crisis narratives. One focused around regime security concerns and an alleged neo-colonial imperialist conspiracy epitomised by the campaigning slogan, “sovereignty, land and empowerment” and one that has been championed by civil society and the opposition parties emphasising the need for a post nationalist liberation discourse centred around good governance, democratisation and human security that finds expression in the broad notions of political choice and societal renewal.
A series of ill-conceived policies and practices plunged the former breadbasket of Southern Africa into economic meltdown that has witnessed inflation reaching levels of over 100 000 percent, food and water shortages, exceedingly high unemployment levels and a large exodus of its skilled and unskilled citizens. The regime retreated further and further into a “laager mentality” in response to international and regional calls for reform. Instead of addressing the domestic sources of this problem the government has seen it fit to internationalise this crisis with claims that it emanates from a bilateral fall-out with the former colonial power, namely, the UK.
Elections have become the main battleground between the contending discourses, personalised in stark contrast by a militarised ZANU-PF with Mugabe at its helm and a people-centred MDC with presidential hopeful Morgan Tsvangirai steering the battleship. The air of optimism that permeated in Zimbabwe on the 30th of March has now given way to despair as the battleground is seemingly shifting from the polls, to the courts, with the possibility of spilling over into the streets.
Faced with the possibility of a political transition, concomitant loss of status and possible prosecution for misdeeds committed while in office, Zanu-PF hard liners are beginning to act as spoilers: re-mobilising the security apparatus both formal and informal, contesting constituency results, demanding a recount of presidential results, assertions of vote rigging, detaining its own ZEC election officials for allegedly tampering with the results and rallying around the president to face another run-off election – all of this while the presidential results are ostensibly unknown.
The MDC, after proclaiming an outright presidential victory, have had to temper their rush to State House and engage with the realities that a run-off is a likelihood and/or that their win would have been by a marginal majority and hence the need for alliance building and possible deals with ZANU-PF prior to any exit, i.e., the politics of political expediency rather than political morality. It is clear that if a solution is to be found to this protracted crisis a middle ground has to be reached, the winner takes all rule that presides heavily in the political culture of the elite, on both sides, has to begin to give way to compromise.
Dazed by the glare of the headlamps is Zimbabwe’s ZEC who, fearful of offending their political handlers in government, have had to check their moves before releasing any results, their credibility indelibly tarnished in the process. Despite media speculation about politburo decisions, the fact that the ZEC have not released the results indicates that finality has not been reached on the way forward by ZANU-PF.
An interesting point of conjecture arising from this situation is how the international community should respond. Not only has ZANU-PF been caught with its pants down for it is clear that it did not contemplate the possibility of defeat, but so has the international community who are stymied at the audacity of the Zimbabwean veteran head of state’s intransigence at having to release the results. The international communities, with their impressive peace and security architectures, looks on helplessly as ZANU-PF continues to do whatever it feels like, in the name of sovereignty and at the expense of those in which sovereignty resides. For, the tools of the international community are not designed to deal with these types of situations – as shown in Nigeria, Kenya and now Zimbabwe, and we will see many more to come in future for these precedents are quickly absorbed by would-be power mongers in Africa. The international community will do little except stand and shout from the margins – or rush to mediate in a context where no good faith prevails - and the astute political veteran knows this: he’s “been there, done that, got a T-shirt”.
What then are the possible scenarios emanating from this political stalemate?
1. Run Off
ZEC finally releases the results that show that no presidential candidate got more than 50% of the vote and they both decide to participate in a run-off. A de facto opposition alliance puts the opposition in a prime position to take the lead. ZANU –PF retaliates through the use of violence as a campaign strategy: it intimidates the electorate, restricts the media and freedom of association, engages in more vote buying and possibly extends the period in which the run-off has to take place from 21 to 90 days by presidential decree.
The MDC changes strategy to focus on mass mobilisation leading to a violent confrontation with state security forces that side in the main with Mugabe. The run-off keeps Zimbabwe in an adversarial political competitive climate for a longer period. A positive end result in this scenario is that despite the obstacles, Tsvangirai still obtains the majority in a massive protest vote and a new government is formed. The more disturbing end result is an election in which Mugabe wins but, because of the process, we are back to square one with an election that lacks credibility and therefore a ruling party that lacks legitimacy and thus slips further into international isolation – regime security becomes the only game in town and the country slides further into the political and economic abyss.
Recommendations
- Deployment of larger contingent of international observes immediately.
- Independent technical expertise must be seconded to ZEC.
- Confidence-building measures instituted that encourage dialogue between the political forces.
2. Mugabe Bows Out
The results show a run-off but President Mugabe concedes defeat, this only on the basis of a deal that sees the formation of a transitional government of national unity and that provides protection for him and his comrades. This provides him with a face-saving measure in that he did not loose outright but has placed the greater good of his country before his own interests. This results in a win-win situation.
3. Clamp Down
Zanu-PF refuses to have ZEC release the results leading to possible violent confrontation. Mugabe declares a state of emergency and continues to rule. A few friendly states to ZANU-PF in the region rally to his aide causing a rift in SADC. The SADC organ is paralysed and we go on in this predatory situation for a number of years until Zimbabwe is categorised amongst those states in Africa said to have experienced “state collapse.” Alternatively this provides sufficient grounds for SADC to mobilise and intervene using its voice and if necessary standby force and we see the emergence of a negotiated settlement.
4. Tsvangirai Victorious
ZEC announces that Tsvangirai has won an outright majority. State House is vacated and its new incumbents enter. They receive assistance from all quarters and are able to put the country back on track. Alternatively, the military refuse to accept the victory and we have a stalled transition with similar results outlined above.
5. Mugabe Victory
ZEC announces that Mugabe has an outright majority. He continues to rule in similar fashion and Zimbabwe slides further down the slippery slope to ruin. Alternatively, having proven the world wrong in its assessment of his people’s support for him, a few months down the line he invokes the 18th amendment and appoints a successor. The successor is a moderate ZANU-PF who is able to turn the party around and begin to put in place measures for the rebuilding of the society – or it is a hardliner where we see a different face but the same rhetoric and bankrupt visions of the future as we essentially wait until the next set of elections to once again see the ideological battle between Zimbabweans take its course.
We do not know which scenario will play itself out – but the writing is on the wall for all involved in trying to find a solution to the crisis in Zimbabwe. The time for political bravado and for “I told you so, I will take my prize’ is over – the situation demands political maturity, compromise, reconciliation and a forward-looking approach to healing and rebuilding. If Zimbabwe is to stabilize cool heads will have to stabilize.
Cheryl Hendricks and Chris Maroleng, ISS Election Observers
