13 February 2008: Uganda Peace Talks on a Knife’s Edge

After eighteen months of going back and forth the Juba Peace Process in Uganda is now faced with yet another storm. Joseph Kony, the leader of the Lords Resistance Army rebel faction, has finally confirmed that his Deputy Vincent Otti is dead. Kony told Dr Riek Machar, the chief mediator of the peace talks between the Government of Uganda and the rebels, that Vincent Otti was no more. Previously Kony had repeatedly asserted, over a period of more than two months, that Vincent Otti was alive but under house arrest.

Numerous LRA deserters have said that Kony, whose 20 year rebellion had killed and maimed thousands and uprooted over two millions people, shot dead his number two in October last year. According to these reports the execution followed Kony’s accusing Otti of seeking popularity in the LRA ranks and of spying for the Government of Uganda.

Regarded as the brains behind the group, Otti was the prime mover behind LRA joining peace talks that began last year in Juba. The killing of Otti erodes trust in Kony and may well choke the talks when the peace process resumes.

Not only did the LRA rebel leader break this unwelcome news, but he also purged his peace negotiating team, accusing them of making money from the peace talks and of delaying the signing of a peace deal. Kony sacked with disgrace Martin Ojul, a moderate man who led the LRA through the 18 months peace talks, together with spokesman Godfrey Ayoo. David Nyekorach –Matsanga is Kony’s new lead negotiator.

The sacking of Kony’s peace team followed President Yoweri Museveni’s gift of US $200,000 to them. The Government denies compromising members of Kony’s peace team. The new lead negotiator hinted that those sacked were blamed for misconduct, lack of credibility and for being involved in shady deals with the Government of Uganda.

Since the start of the talks in July 2006, which raised hopes of an end to the war, the seriousness and commitment of Joseph Kony to having a peace deal signed has been repeatedly put in doubt. Under the truce pact the LRA rebels were supposed to assemble in Southern Sudan, but to date they are still in their hideout in Garamba National Park in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

With the killing of Kony’s deputy, the brains behind the talks, and the sacking of his peace team, the doubts about the LRA rebel leader seem to be justified.

The ultimatum of 31st January 2008 which was set by the Government of Uganda for the peace deal to be reached has now passed. The leader of the Government negotiating team confirmed that the deadline has been extended until the end of February 2008, but warned that it will not be extended any further. It has since transpired that the USA and EU have joined the peace talks in Juba and that the LRA are demanding 35% of the senior positions in the Ugandan National Army and the same proportion of Government Tenders. That seems to be unacceptable to the Governments’ team.

Meanwhile both the LRA and the Government of Uganda have continued to accuse each other of breaching the ceasefire deal. The Government of Uganda has warned members of the peace talk’s team intending to meet Kony in his hideout in Garamba to do so with caution, as their security and safety cannot be guaranteed. There can be little doubt that the peace process in Uganda is now resting on a knife’s edge.

Samuel Sserwanga, Senior Legal Analyst: ICPAT, ISS Addis Ababa