The Impact of Climate Change in Eastern Africa
blurb:isstoday:26022008climateeastafrica
26 February 2008: The Impact of Climate Change in Eastern Africa
The President of the Royal College of Physicians in Britain stated early this year that the effects of global warming on human health could soon eclipse those of smoking, alcohol and obesity. He is not alone in this ominous prediction of the human impact of climate change. In Africa it is the Eastern region that looks set to experience some of the most severe impacts of climate change.
Rising temperatures and intense rainfall in the region have been predicted. This is likely to lead to increased incidents of malaria epidemics in the highlands of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda. While temperatures affect the development rates of vectors and parasites, rainfall affects the availability of mosquito breeding sites. Climate changes such as the persistent warm and rainy days that have occurred through most of the year have led to an increase in malaria outbreaks in many areas in the region. In addition, temperatures are warming in the formerly cooler higher elevation areas of Eastern Africa leading to a spread in malaria in areas and populations that had previously not been exposed to the disease. Recurrent outbreaks of rift valley fever epidemics in the region are also correlated to climate variability. Between 1950 and 1998, three quarters of the rift valley fever outbreaks occurred during the el Niño seasons.
However, the impact of climate change in the region is not limited to an increase in malaria outbreaks. Climate change is also set to affect food security and access to water in the region.
There has been a marked variation in the amount of rainfall in the region since 1996 as a result of climate change. This has in turn affected agricultural production, which has in turn affected food security. For example, between 1996 and 2003 there was a dramatic decline of the amount of rainfall, in the region of between 50-150 mm per season. In addition to the decline in rainfall, there is also a growing deviation from normal growing seasons, which affects food production and thus food security.
Access to water for domestic, livestock and agricultural use is predicted to be one the most serious consequences of climate change in Eastern Africa. Currently, two-thirds of all people in rural Africa and a quarter of urban dwellers lack access to clean and safe drinking water. This situation is likely to be aggravated by the negative effects of climate change on precipitation in the region.
The shortage of water in the region is mostly going to be a result of the variability in the frequency, intensity and predictability of rainfall in the region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-2001) predicts that warmer temperature in the region will lead to a 5-20% increase in rainfall between December and February and a 5-10% decrease in rainfall between June and August. However, it notes that these changes are more likely to be sporadic and unpredictable and will not be uniform throughout the year in the region. This unpredictability will affect water management and thus affect water for domestic consumption and industrial use.
Climate change in the region will also affect water availability as a result of warming sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean off the Eastern Africa coast, which have been blamed for the recent reduction in rainfall and draughts in the equatorial and subtropical Eastern Africa region. In Tanzania for example, high temperatures and less rainfall have been predicted to affect the annual flow to the River Pangani and to River Ruvu by 6-9% and 10% respectively. The Pangani basin is also fed by glaciers from Mt. Kilimanjaro, a source of water that is predicted to disappear completely by 2015-2020. The Pangani region is one of Tanzania’s most productive agricultural areas and the inhabitants of the basin depend on the melt water from Mt. Kilimanjaro and the fog water from the rainforest for drinking, irrigation and hydropower.
Climate change has also had a severe impact on the fluctuations in lake levels in Eastern Africa. For example, in Lake Victoria in 1997 floods and rainfall triggered by el Niño effects in Eastern Africa resulted in a surface rise of 1.7 meters, disrupting agricultural production and pastoral systems in the region.
In line with the Institute for Security Studies’ goal of conceptualizing, informing and enhancing the debate on Human Security in Africa in order to support policy formulation and decision-making, the Tshwane (Pretoria) office is hosting a Workshop on Climate change and Human Security in Africa. The proposed outputs of this workshop will be a published report that will be widely disseminated with recommendations for future research on climate change and human security in Africa. Further information on the workshop will be made available on the ISS website.
Rose Mwebaza, Senior Legal Advisor: MIFUGO Programme, ISS Nairobi Office
