Cote D'Ivoire: Finally a Light at the End of the Tunnel?
Already postponed six times in the past five years, the presidential election in Cote d’Ivoire now scheduled for October 31 2010 is understandably a source of much anticipation and anxiety. However, although numerous challenges remain to be addressed, there are credible signs that the election will effectively take place on the set day. The election is seen as a defining moment in the political history of the country and as providing an opportunity for re-mapping its socio-political and economic future, including restoring its image as a beacon of peace and stability on the continent. It was the inability of major political actors to manage underlying cleavages in the Ivorian polity in the aftermath of the demise of the country’s founding father, Felix Houphuet Boigny that plunged what was arguably one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous countries into a protracted armed conflict.
David Zounmenou, senior researcher, ACPP-Pretoria
Already postponed six times in the past five years, the presidential election in Cote d’Ivoire now scheduled for October 31 2010 is understandably a source of much anticipation and anxiety. However, although numerous challenges remain to be addressed, there are credible signs that the election will effectively take place on the set day. The election is seen as a defining moment in the political history of the country and as providing an opportunity for re-mapping its socio-political and economic future, including restoring its image as a beacon of peace and stability on the continent. It was the inability of major political actors to manage underlying cleavages in the Ivorian polity in the aftermath of the demise of the country’s founding father, Felix Houphuet Boigny that plunged what was arguably one of Africa’s most stable and prosperous countries into a protracted armed conflict.
Efforts to create a conducive environment for election have been long and complicated, with several disruptions that raised concerns about a possible return to violent armed conflict. While the government of President Lauren Gbagbo insisted on disarmament, demobilisation and demilitarisation and reintegration (DDDR) as the first step to any lasting peace, the former rebels emphasised the completion of the issuance of identification documents. Many mediation efforts were frustrated and even current ECOWAS-mandated mediator President Blaise Compaore threatened throwing in the towel. Fortunately, the resilience and patience of various stakeholders seem to be yielding some fruit and Cote d’Ivoire is on the path to real stability. Although disagreement over the voter registration process lasted longer than expected, various actors eventually understood that compromise was necessary if the peace process was to have any chance of success. Therefore, with the UN certification of the final voter list of 5,725,720 and the effective commencement of the distribution of identity documents, it could be argued that Cote d’Ivoire is now set to embrace the next step in its peace building process.
The stakes are high. On the one hand, it is about completing successfully the Ouagadougou Peace Agreement (APO) initiated by and agreed upon by the protagonists - a home-grown dynamic peace initiative which was seen as the ultimate attempt at bringing about peace in a divided Cote d’Ivoire. A key outcome here is the holding of the election as the ultimate test of the political will that inspired the Ouagadougou Agreement. This aims to close one of the most complex and violent chapters in post-independent Cote d’Ivoire. Whenever the political will dwindled along the way, the activities of the Cadre Permanent de Concertation - a negotiating committee consisting of the main protagonists in the political crisis - was instrumental in reviving and keeping the dialogue among Ivoirian actors alive. Here again, the role of the UN in certifying the final results of the elections will be crucial but challenging, knowing that the institution had been for years been pushed at the periphery of the peace process by the ruling party.
On the other hand, and closely related to the previous argument is the restoration of legitimate leadership, the absence of which had been one of the trigger factors of the conflict. The failed transition from Houphouet Boigny’s regime to that of former president Henri Konan Bedi’, coupled with rigged elections under former military ruler Robert Guei, paved the way for Cote d’Ivoire’s woes. It is worth noting that former rebels and militia leaders are mobilising supporters for a free, fair and peaceful vote. Whether that momentum will be sustained depends largely on a continued engagement with key actors by ECOWAS, the African Union (AU) and other partners throughout the process.
It now seems that issues revolving around the nationality of former Prime Minister Allassane Dramane Ouattara have faded away momentarily and the battle of ideas has replaced the hate speeches, political exclusion and malicious political manipulation. These all contributed to the North-South divide which tarnished Houphouet-Boigny’s political heritage. Interestingly, political leaders who had been brandishing the infamous concept of ‘Ivoirit’ to win votes are now focusing all their energy on socio-economic projects. Through the concept of ‘Ivoirit’ they had not only created resentment towards Ouattara, a candidate for the presidency, but had created divisions between northerners and southerners.
The already positive start of the electoral campaign is expected to culminate in meeting the election deadline of 31 October. The three major candidates, incumbent Laurent Gbagbo, Ouattara and Bedi' are vying to win the hearts and minds of Ivoirians. Strategies are being crafted to secure votes. In particular, Gbagbo understands that in order to win, he must break the regional and ethnic cluster rethoric, which is no longer favourable to the ruling party, the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI). His attempt to position himself as a patriot, a nationalist and a pan-africanist, fighting for the liberation of Cote d’Ivoire, might be seen as an old-fashioned political ideology but could help in maintaining his urban youth support base with a radical stance on foreign intrusion, mainly from France. Though relations with Paris have improved recently, the ill-feeling of the youth towards the latter will take some time to die down.
Bedi’ relies on his experience as a former Head of State and the powerful electoral machinery of the former ruling party, the Parti D’mocratique de la Cote d’Ivoire-Rassemblement Democratique Africain (PDCI-RDA) to return to power. Ouattara of the Rassemblement des Republicains (RDR) seems to be counting on securing the votes of Ivorians from the North of the country, whose citizenship was questioned and at a time denied. Both Ouattara and Bedi also have commendable support in rural areas that represent at least half of the voting population. Moreover, they have forged an alliance and have drafted a common political programme with the hope to support each other in the likely event of a run-off. Of major concern is that they are running the risk of falling into a political trap by not presenting a single candidate right from the first round.
Assuming there is no hiccup on the road to the elections, tentatively, there are three possible scenarios. Firstly, an outright victory of the ruling party. Many think the ruling party has set the scene to win an outright victory stymieing any dream of a run-off for the opposition coalition. However it is highly unlikely that any of the candidates gets an outright majority in the first round. Though the ruling party has the incumbency advantage, having been in power for virtually ten years, shifting loyalties might have caused Gbagbo’s initial support, which he enjoyed when he first came to power, to wane. Moreover, such a claim cannot be conclusive, as Cote d’Ivoire has not held any major election for the past decade. Reliance on opinions polls should also be limited as these polls, conducted by foreign companies who are government-affiliated, are limited in scope and objectivity. It remains to be seen whether the panafricanist, anticolonialist rhetoric will bring good fortunes to President Gbagbo.
The most likely scenario is the distribution of votes along ethnic and regional lines among the three main candidates in such a way that the two best candidates will stand for the run-off. Inevitably, the opposition’s alliance will be put to test. At various stages of political contestation in the country, alliances were built and broken between Gbagbo, Ouattara and Bedi’. There is no guarantee that this time around the coalition will survive, given the likelihood of attractive political promises, except perhaps if the desire to defeat Gbagbo as an act of personal political revenge is stronger than the opposition leaders’ political ego.
The third scenario is derived from the previous one. Though unlikely, it cannot be excluded. One of the members of the opposition coalition might join hands with the ruling party in the run-off to secure access to power and privileges. If it happens to be Ouattara this would be the end of Bedi’s political career given his old age. On the long term it would create an opportunity for the FPI to ‘manage’ Ouattara, within a coalition government.
It is a norm in Africa that the incumbent hardly looses an electoral contest held under his rule. Whoever wins the election will be subject to contestation and the question is will the others accept the results? If they do not, what is likely to be the implications? The UN representative Ambassador Choi Youn-jin has started putting in place measures to counter any violence that may ensue.
The electoral commission still has the daunting task of distributing 11 million ID cards in just a few days and to ensure that all logistics are in place, in order to have a successful election that will bring about a new legitimate leadership. Additionally, the institution is to recruit and train 66 000 voting agents ahead of the elections. One can only hope that, no matter who wins the elections, Cote d’Ivoire’s leaders would remain conscious of their responsibility to heed the AU’s call to make 2010 the Year of Peace on the continent. For elections alone are not enough to bring back national cohesion in Cote d’Ivoire. Key issues at the origin of the conflict will require s tremendous amount of political will. Among them, the real completion of the DDDR process is vital and necessitates the continued engagement of local as well as external stakeholders.
