Angola`s Decisive Parliamentary Election
blurb:isstoday02Sep2008
2 September 2008: Angola’s Decisive Parliamentary Election
On Friday the 5th of September, 8.3 million Angolans will elect a new parliament in the second multi-party elections in this country’s history. Angola is at the crossroads and the manner in which these elections are conducted will determine whether peace and reconciliation will remain fragile and temporary realities or if the country will enter a new phase of sustainable development, constitutional legitimacy and democracy.
Angola’s first and only previous experience with multi-party elections was in 1992 - an episode that proved to be very traumatic. Both the ruling MPLA and the rebel movement UNITA were accused of carrying out purges following the aborted elections. War resumed and only officially came to an end in 2002. Because of that experience Angolans have come to equate elections with fear and violence - a general feeling that has not eased since the date was set for these legislative elections. A recent report by Human Rights Watch point to widespread intimidation, harassment and brutality against opposition members, supporters and journalists.
Indeed, under the veneer of a stable country, experiencing the fastest economic growth in the world (19.8% in 2007); flaunting a construction boom with mega infrastructure projects; a comprehensive and successful electoral registration process and the rhetoric of making Angola an example of democracy for Africa, lies the reality of a repressive and mismanaged state.
Six years after the end of the three-decade long war, Angolans are yet to receive their peace dividend. The majority continues to live in extreme poverty, in a country that ranks in the lowest 20 of the UNDP’s Human Development Index, where access to basic social services continues to be a daily struggle and unemployment rates remain high. Despite this reality, a change of government is rather unlikely. After winning the war the MPLA has consolidated its power, broadened its patronage, and has invested in providing “security” to the population by expanding the armed forces to include civil militia groups, as well as a highly sophisticated system of informers that keeps the population in check.
The politics of fear remain the status quo in Angola - a tool used to dissuade any form of popular protest or manifestation calling for change. The first indication of the government’s heavy-handed reaction to dissent occurred in 1977 when the MPLA youths, headed by Nito Alves, mobilized the population in what was considered a potential coup d’état. It was followed by a purge within the ruling party. Some believe that as many as 70,000 MPLA militants were killed. The post- electoral violence that ensued in 1992 took the form of ethnic cleansing and revenge killings by the MPLA and later by UNITA as well, killing over 300,000 Angolans throughout the 18 provinces. In 1993, the Bakongo (the main supporters of the FNLA opposition party) experienced what has become known as “Bloody Friday”. Thousands were killed by Angolan security forces in the northern provinces of Uige and Zaire, on the basis that they were not Angolans but ‘Zairenses’ (Congolese).
Given this background, peaceful, free and fair elections are a fundamental step towards restructuring the political order after decades of violent conflict, and in providing the country and the war-affected masses with a sense of reconciliation and belonging. However, many signs point to the fact that none of the 9 opposition parties or 4 coalitions will be in a position to challenge the MPLA. The biggest uncertainty for the MPLA is whether it will manage to get a two-thirds majority or if it will face greater resistance in parliament. Even though the likelihood of post-electoral violence like in Kenya or Zimbabwe is rather low, political leaders of Africa’s biggest oil producer shouldn’t underestimate the potential consequences of economic marginalization and social anger. If the population find themselves in a perpetual state of political marginalization, unemployment, poverty, social and economic injustice, without the ability to freely participate in changing this, the future of Angola’s democracy will remain uncertain.
Paula Roque, African Security Analysis Programme, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria Office
