Algiers talks are Mali's best chance for peace
There is hope for a peace agreement between Mali's government and armed groups, but will this prove a lasting solution?
Talks in Algeria about the future stability of Mali were suspended at the end of last week. This came amid fears that the internal divisions among armed groups in the north of Mali could again scupper a lasting peace agreement.
Renewed violence in Mali, notably the recent killing of nine United Nations (UN) peacekeepers, has cast a shadow over the talks.
Insiders, however, say the interdisciplinary nature of the discussions and the firm leadership of Algeria’s foreign minister and former African Union (AU) Commissioner for Peace and Security, Ramtane Lamamra, could lead to a successful deal. The talks are to resume at the end of November.
Issaka Souaré, special advisor to the High Representative of the AU for Mali and the Sahel, believes a peace agreement could be finalised in the coming weeks to be presented for signing by heads of state in December. The talks have an ‘almost scientific’ nature and include a range of subcommittees that focus on the root causes of the crisis, such as development in the north, human rights and political issues, he says.
The fact that all stakeholders, including the AU, the UN, the Economic Community of West African States and the Organisation of the Islamic Conference are involved also gives it a good chance of success, Souaré said during a seminar at the Institute for Security Studies last week.
A worrying factor remains those groups who are excluded from the Algiers talks  |
This is the third round of talks in Algiers between the politico-military groups – which includes the Mouvement pour la Libération de l’Azawad (MNLA), the High Council for the Unity of Azawad, the Coalition of the People for Azawad and the Arab Movement for Azawad – and the Malian government. The talks are aimed at finding a lasting solution to the crisis that has gripped Mali for over two years now. They follow the signing of the Ouagadougou agreement in June 2013.
According to some reports a draft agreement was handed out to the parties during the talks last week, comprising a comprehensive list of issues, including an agreement on reconciliation, justice and the economic development of the north of Mali. It remains to be seen whether all the parties agree to these suggestions, which were made by the facilitators of the talks.
The occupation by the MNLA of northern Mali and the coup d’état in Bamako in March 2012 plunged the country into a crisis that threatened its territorial integrity. The MNLA was joined by a plethora of other groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which was already present in large parts of the Sahel; the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa; and Ansar Dine.
Regional efforts to re-establish democracy in Mali and to drive out the armed groups were faltering when French troops were called in on January 2013. The French military intervention, codenamed Operation Serval, lasted until July this year. The African-led international support mission to Mali (AFISMA) was meanwhile re-hatted as the United Nations Multidimensional Stabilisation Mission for Mali (MINUSMA). MINUSMA is supposed to have 12 000 soldiers, but is now only 6 300 troops strong.
 One of the key factors would be a complete restructuring of the Malian army |
Souaré says while capacity and financial independence of the African mission was clearly a problem, he believes there was no real need for AFISMA to be rehatted as a UN force, because essentially the same troops are now part of the UN mission. ‘Africa could have done it,’ he says.
David Zounmenou, United Nations Regional Expert on Côte d’Ivoire, who chaired the ISS seminar, says it is crucial that a sustainable solution be found for the ongoing crisis.
One of the key factors would be a complete restructuring of the Malian army. The European Union is currently busy with a training programme for the army, but this will take quite some time, he says. ‘There is a need for strong guarantees to ensure the effective implementation of any future agreement if one wants to break the cycle of insurgencies in the region,’ he added. Attention should be paid to 'peace dividends,’ which should focus on the interests of the community at large, rather than individuals, says Zounmenou.
The resurgence of violence in the last few weeks has led to the suspicion that armed groups like Ansar Dine had gone underground during the French offensive, but have now regrouped. French troops have partly withdrawn from Mali and are now operating under codename Operation Barkhane, with around 3 000 troops headquartered in Chad.
Others also believe the terror groups might have fled to bases in southern Libya and elsewhere and are now returning. They see a renewed opportunity to occupy northern Mali – a strategic area for arms and drug trafficking, which remains a crucial part of the activities of some of the armed groups. They have been bolstered due to the reduced number of French peacekeepers, and because MINUSMA still is not at its ideal strength.
Even if a peace deal is signed, the worrying factor remains those groups operating across the Sahel who are excluded from the Algiers talks, and the continuing threat caused by the implosion of Libya. The AU is determined to find ‘African solutions for African problems,’ including in the fight against terror. The fundamental question being asked, however, is whether the AU strategies for combating terror, like the joint patrols envisaged by the Nouakchott process, will be enough to fight groups like Boko Haram, AQIM or even al-Shabaab in Somalia.
Zounmenou believes the mandate of UN interventions like MINUSMA should, in these circumstances, be radically changed in order to pursue terror groups, which are different to rebel groups one would find elsewhere on the continent. Another option would be a rapid intervention force like the one envisaged by South African president Jacob Zuma. A lack of funds might, however, also stand in the way of Zuma’s African Capacity for Immediate Response to Crises.
| The AU is determined to find African solutions, including in the fight against terror |
Earlier this month, Suliman Baldo, the UN Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Mali, called upon the international community to strengthen the capacity of MINUSMA and the Malian government to secure the north of the country. According to Baldo, the resurgence of violence has made it difficult for the inhabitants of northern Mali to get access to basic services like health care, clean water and education.
Souaré stressed the complex nature of the crisis in Mali and the wider Sahel. He also warned against the use of stereotypes and inaccurate labelling of armed terror groups. For example, to make peace in Mali it is important to understand that not all armed groups in the north of the country are Tuaregs, he said. Such misleading labels can inflame already entrenched prejudices and lead to reprisals. Only some groups, like the MNLA, are made up of a majority of Tuaregs – the nomadic original inhabitants of the stretch of desert from Mauritania to Chad.
The labelling of terror groups as ‘Islamists’ or ‘jihadists’ also has far-reaching implications. This creates links between armed groups that do not exist and bestows on them a religious legitimacy that they do not have. Souaré says this labelling is ‘strategically and conceptually flawed.’ He added: ‘These groups have hijacked Islam, but terror has no religion. We should be isolating these groups, which are in fact just criminal groups.’
Keeping Mali together following the conflict and political upheaval of these last few years is the priority of the Malian government. How this can be achieved in a way that would prevent more conflict and forestall any future rebellions in the north, is the real challenge facing the Algiers talks.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, ISS Consultant
