2010 Elections Burundi`s Next Test
This year, 2009 turned out to be the year during which Burundi’s piecemeal peace process finally drew to a close. More than 25 years after its creation, the Palipehutu-FNL – Burundi’s last remaining rebel movement - was registered as the country’s 42nd political party.
Jamila El Abdellaoui, Senior Researcher, Conflict Prevention Programme, ISS Addis Ababa Office
This year, 2009 turned out to be the year during which Burundi’s
piecemeal peace process finally drew to a close. More than 25 years
after its creation, the Palipehutu-FNL – Burundi’s last remaining rebel
movement - was registered as the country’s 42nd political party. Many
senior members of the movement – now named simply FNL to allow its
political birth - took up various positions in the Government of Burundi
(GoB) and thousands of its combatants either integrated into the
national army or the police force or went through a disarmament,
demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) process. Burundi’s peace, a
culmination of African efforts that commenced as far back as the
mid-1990s, appears to be complete.
This milestone – though obviously welcomed – did not receive the
attention it would have if the country had not long since entered into
an election mode. Burundi is scheduled to hold its second
post-transitional elections in mid-2010 and unofficial electioneering
reportedly commenced as early as 2008. This eagerness can partly be
explained by a general awareness among political parties that the
ruling party may not be guaranteed victory at the polls this time
around. The CNDD-FDD, itself a rebel movement until 5 years ago,
inherited a country with numerous challenges, the most important of
which related to the challenges of state craft and ending the cycle of
poverty. It has been tried and tested for almost five years and in some
cases found wanting, as could have been expected. In addition to this,
numerous new political parties have been established, not least the
FNL, which is regarded by many as serious competition for the ruling
party.
Unfortunately, post-conflict reconstruction efforts in Burundi did
not succeed in adequately preparing the young democracy for the
upcoming competition at the ballot box. Various initiatives have been
undertaken to promote and facilitate dialogue between different
stakeholders, including the political factions in the country. This is
especially important given the fact that lack of dialogue, resulting in
heightened misunderstanding and tensions at critical moments in the
country’s history, have allowed waves of violence to occur in Burundi
in the past. The 2010 elections could arguably be considered as another
critical moment for Burundi although a common understanding of the
rules and value of the electoral contest among political players
appears to be absent.
As a result, tensions have been running high, further exacerbated by
restrictions imposed on both political parties and civil society
organisations by the ruling party. Human Rights Watch reported the
arrest of more than a hundred political opponents between June 2008 and
April 2009. Other reports claim the (re-)arming of militias by several
political parties as tools to intimidate the electorate. The fact that
the reintegration phase of the country’s recently completed DDR process
has largely failed, especially concerning those returning to urban
areas, explains the availability of some former combatants to join such
groups. Lastly, the ruling party as well as other political parties,
including the FNL, appear to suffer from serious internal rifts,
something that has plagued Burundi in the past. As is well-known, weak
political parties do not augur well for a democratisation process.
It has been argued that country-wide violence in Burundi as a result
of the elections is unlikely - an argument that is explained by the
conflict trajectory in Burundi. The populace is generally tired of the
insecurity that has prevailed in the country for so long. Nevertheless,
recent developments are worrisome and in a country as small and
densely populated as Burundi, violent clashes between armed supporters
of political factions could easily reverse the country’s path towards
sustainable peace. Moreover, it should be noted that Burundi is just
one of four key countries in the Great Lakes Region – besides Uganda,
the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda – that is scheduled to
hold elections in the next two years. The various electoral contests
are likely to have an impact on a region already suffering from
lingering tension.
Based on this, it can be argued that Burundi is a classroom example
of a country at potential risk of election-related violence and the
question therefore is how relevant international actors are
contributing towards the prevention of such a situation. At present, its
engagement at least appears to be coordinated. For instance, towards
the end of August when relevant political parties still had not agreed
on a draft revised electoral code – an issue that prevented the
country’s electoral commission from commencing with basic preparations
for the polls – various foreign missions in the country issued a
communiqué urging the parties to reach a consensus. However, other
efforts could be undertaken at this stage. Promoting dialogue between
political factions could still have an effect and provide a possible
alternative to a resort to violence. Furthermore, Burundi provides an
opportunity for the AU, for instance, to move beyond its conventional
approach to elections, which has centred on deploying election
observers or facilitating an agreement to end an already existing
election-related dispute. The continental body has a long track-record
of peacemaking efforts in the country, providing a leverage that could
be used to engage political factions more rigorously. It is therefore
noteworthy that a recent communiqué of the AU Peace and Security
Council urges the deployment of such a mission. This could possibly be
coordinated with efforts from relevant countries in the region that
successfully facilitated the negotiations between the GoB and FNL.
Supporting initiatives aimed at building public trust, especially in
the urban areas, is key as well as they could still positively affect
the current apprehension that appears to be prevailing. Efforts towards
building the mediation capacity of selected community leaders and
other influential people should also be encouraged.
Lastly, it should be noted that Burundi’s upcoming election is not
only a test for the Barundi, but also for those organisations and
structures put in place to deal with the prevention of conflict,
especially election-related conflict. This issue has received more
attention after experiences of violence triggered by elections in
numerous African countries in the recent past. In the case of Burundi,
it is impossible to argue that there were no warning signs.
