A joint seminar by the Institute for Security Studies, the Frederick S Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver, and the South African Department of International Relations and Cooperation.

Presenters: Prof Barry Hughes, Jonathan Moyer and Erin Torkelson

The seminar followed a week-long workshop with the Department of International Relations and Cooperation’s (DIRCO) Policy Research and Analysis Unit (PRAU) on the International Futures model (IFs). The purpose of the workshop was to assist the department by examining significant and relevant global trends in order to think about long-term planning and policy formulation. The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and the Pardee Centre for International Futures (Pardee) have formed a partnership that established the African Futures Project, which forecasts and analyses global trends based on historical data with a particular focus on Africa.

The seminar began with the examination of five key global transitions in: human development, demographics, power, energy and the environment.

Human development usually leads to demographic transitions.  Looking at historical trends, there have been shifts from large families to smaller families and longer life spans globally. Using the IFs model this trend will continue in coming decades, with the world witnessing a reduction in the number of people in a family unit and the extension of years in an individual’s life span. Education will contribute to these shifts.

Youth bulges- the percent of the population between the ages of 15 and 29- in some countries, could lead to internal and political instability, as evident during the Arab Spring.  Over the next several years most countries will see a decline in the number of people that fall within this particular age bracket.  However a large number of African countries, including Nigeria, could witness an increase in their youth bulge, which is troubling if coupled with more widespread education and increased levels of unemployment.  A situation like this could have negative consequences that lead to domestic instability and uprisings. 

This situation is in stark contrast to a country such as Japan that will have an increase in the number of people older than 65 - the elderly bulge. From 2010 to 2030, some European countries such as Germany could also see an elderly bulge.  Also of interest, is that about ten years from now, African countries are going to see more deaths from chronic diseases and injuries than from communicable diseases, which will play a major role in restructuring demographics.

In terms of power transitions, China will experience a growth in the relative portion of global or material power over the next 20 years, as opposed to the US, which will experience a decline.  The index of power takes into account military spending, as well as economic, technological growth and population.  According to the model, over time, Africa will also see a slight growth in power.  Followed by the rise of the BRICS countries, the Next 11 will also have a stake at the global “high-table”.  The Next 11 or the N-11 have been categorised by Goldman-Sachs as potentially being the world’s largest economies after BRICS, in the 21^st century.  Regional power shifts will likely accompany this rise, with countries such as Nigeria and Egypt coming to the fore.

Energy transitions will see a general peak in oil production over time.  However, the key transition would be the increased use of renewable energy throughout the world.  Renewable energy is becoming cheaper to produce, which will have a positive impact on Africa.

Climate change will have devastating consequences globally, but particularly for Africa, which will generally become wetter following changes in the levels of precipitation although North and Southern Africa will experience declines in annual rain-fall.  This means that disease could become rampant and will affect agricultural yields. The IFs model found that China, Russia and Canada will benefit from climate change in terms of agricultural yields, however India and Africa will be worst hit.

As a conclusion to the seminar the new AFP website was launched (www.issafrica.org/futures).  The website was used to demonstrate the way in which information relating to trends in Africa could be extracted and utilised.

Please see the links to the graphs that were examined during the seminar;

Material power and Aging populations

Graph 1

Graph 2

Youth Bulge

Graph 1

Graph 2  

Life Expectancy and Fertility

Graph 1

Graph 2