ISS Seminar Report: Cultivating the Future - Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa

Date: 2012-08-24

Venue: , Institute for Security Studies , Cape Town, South Africa

This seminar followed a week-long training workshop on the International Futures Model, jointly organised by the NEPAD Planning and Coordinating Agency (NPCA), the ISS and the Pardee Center for International Futures, University of Denver. The training workshop aimed at building capacity for senior officials in the NPCA and the African Union Commission (AUC). The training, which began on Monday 20 August 2012 for 34 senior officials from the AUC and NPCA, focused on the analysis of Africa’s current development trajectory, with the intention of eventually being able to set attainable development goals for individual countries to achieve and monitor their progress. It was the first step in accordance with a decision of the Executive Council of the African Union (AU) for the NPCA to develop a long-term AU-wide African Growth and Development Plan (AG&DP). Participants focused on specific thematic areas, such as infrastructure, agriculture and development, as well as state fragility and performance. 

The seminar coincided with the launch of the African Futures Brief No 4 of the African Futures Project titled Cultivating the Future: Exploring the Potential and Impact of a Green Revolution in Africa. Using the International Futures (IFs) modelling software, the paper presents three scenarios: where things appear to be going (base case); an African green revolution; and an African green revolution for development. The latter combines economic and social benefits to offer the best outcome for all Africans, although a number of uncertainties remain.

Dr Jakkie Cilliers (ISS Executive Director) chaired the seminar and Dr Jonathan Moyer (Associate Director, Pardee Center for International Futures), provided the participants with a virtual presentation on Africa’s green revolution using the IFs software. Prof. Barry Hughes (Director of the Pardee Center for International Futures) and Martin Bwalya (Head, the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme, CAADP) were discussants.

Discussions during the seminar sought to provide answers to the following questions: Can Africa diversify its economies and employ its growing populations in manufacturing and services, as well as successfully manage the wealth generated by its raw materials? Will climate change increase pressures on agriculture or will Africa have its own green revolution? How will Africa deal with opportunities and threats emanating from population growth, climate change and changes in the agricultural sector?  And, more importantly, can a green revolution bring about a more sustainable future for the continent?

To provide answers to the above questions and to explore the potential and impact of a green revolution in Africa, Dr Moyer’s presentation drew upon the base-case forecasts available from the IFs modeling software used in the African Futures project (a collaboration between the ISS and the Pardee Center for International Futures). The IFs model – a tool for long-term thinking around country, regional, national and global futures – enables policy-makers to understand the long-term impact of their decisions. By using the software, the aim was to share perspectives and to enrich the ongoing debates on Africa’s green revolution, since the model can create alternative scenarios by asking ‘what if’ questions and map out trajectories on a range of thematic issues, based on historical data.

During the discussions, a number of questions were raised. Among others, participants wanted to know where the demand for increasing yield production and increased fertilizer usage came from. What are the imperatives that inform the African Green Revolution? What are the results for our efforts in agriculture? Is a green revolution in Africa possible without genetically modified organisms (GMOs)? How appropriate is CAADP for countries like South Africa? After 10 years of CAADP’s implementation, Africa is still facing food insecurity. Therefore, what challenges does CAADP face? And why is the positive impact of a green revolution not seen and equally distributed? How can we reconcile the proposed scenario on a ‘green revolution for human development’ with regional integration?

Other questions were centred on the capabilities of the IFs software. In particular, participants were interested in finding out whether there were any other variables that were taken as exogenous in the model. Was the model tested and for how many years? Does the model account for the number of hectares in Africa used for production by external actors/countries? Some participants observed that the model totally ignored political reality. They were of the view that, if we wanted to talk about Africa’s future, we had to talk about Africa’s present.

At the end of the seminar it was clear that, despite large tracts of rich, uncultivated land, Africa would continue to suffer from high levels of malnutrition and low agricultural productivity. The sentiment echoed by the discussants was that growth in yield production in the continent did not translate into improvements in people’s lives. It was pointed out that there was a need to differentiate between a green revolution and a green revolution for human development. Discussants were also of the view that it was critical for the continent not only to look at increasing yields but also to pay a particular focus on the wealth that will come with such an increase.

The seminar identified the need to continue making use of analytical policy tools like IFs to help African policy-makers to appreciate and fully understand the uncertainties and today’s complexities of policy-making. It was pointed out that the continent needed policies and frameworks that would channel it towards social development, which was what the CAADP sought to do.

The participants thanked the organisers for facilitating this successful seminar, and requested that a similar occasion be arranged in the future where the IFs model can be better explained in detail. Participants agreed that the IFs model provided a framework for thinking strategically about African policy challenges and opportunities. The seminar concluded that a green revolution for human development was the desired future. There was a consensus that Africa needed to chart its own course and not merely emulate other examples such as those from India, Brazil or Vietnam.

This event was made possible through funding from the Hanns Seidel Foundation