ISS Seminar, Pretoria: Launch of the ISS monograph: African Futures 2050

Date: 2011-02-07

Venue: ISS Seminar Room, Block C, Brooklyn Court, 361 Veale Street, New Muckleneuk, (Parking in Brooklyn Mall and ABSA Court)

RSVP: Ms S Malefo
Tel: 012 346 9500
Fax: 012 460 0997
[email protected]

Authored by Dr Jakkie Cilliers (ISS), Prof Barry Hughes and Jonathan Moyer (University of Denver)

Major transitions are rapidly reshaping Africa. Populations are growing substantially and urbanizing. Economic growth has accelerated over the last decade. New technologies, including mobile phones and solar cells, are sweeping across the continent. Longstanding conflicts have been or are being addressed. On the broader stage, but with important regional implications, the rise of China, India and other major emerging countries are changing our trading and investment patterns.

Yet major uncertainties face us. How rapidly will we bring communicable diseases under control and advance the education of our citizens? Can Africa diversify its economies and employ its growing population in manufacturing and services, as well as successfully managing the wealth generated by its raw materials? Will climate change increase pressures on agriculture or will Africa have its own green revolution? How will the continent build the extensive infrastructures that it desperately needs? What will be the quality of our governance? How will external actors, both government and firms, approach and affects Africa.

With this monograph the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center for International Futures provide an extensive study of Africa’s current course. Combining the deep and wide knowledge of Africa within the ISS with extensive use of the IF’s modeling system, this discussion goes beyond past work in a number of ways. It looks across most major issue arenas: demographics, economics, sociopolitical change, the environment and human development itself, including health and education. It explores further into our future than perhaps any other extensive study of African futures has ever done. While not pushing forward specific policy initiatives, it provides a context within which those who pursue sustainable human development can consider our policies. While providing broad set of insights concerning where we may be going, clearly this study leaves room for much future work. No one can predict the future and we do not pretend to do so. Instead this publication provides one possible future, shaped by recent and likely future developments. The intention is to build in the near future and in collaboration with other African institutions, other visions, rooted heavily in alternative choices and actions across the continent. Clearly, the story of Africa’s future has only begun.

Chairperson: Dr Paul-Simon Handy, Director Research, ISS

Speaker: Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Executive Director, ISS

ISS Rules: Participants are free to use the information presented, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed without his/her express permission.