ISS Seminar, Pretoria: A Tale of Two Provinces: Deviations in Provincial Crime Trends

According to the South African Police Service’s annual crime statistics, overall crime fell by 5% between 2009/10 and 2010/11. Murder fell by 6,5%, attempted murder by 12,2%, sexual offences by 4,4% and aggravated robbery by 12,2%. This is also the case with almost all the other crime categories, with the notable exception of commercial crime that increased again this year by 2,8%, and the murder of women that increased by 5,6%.

However, not all the provinces share the same promising trends and in fact some provinces show an alarming increase in crimes, against the national trend. A case in point is the Western Cape where the murder rate has increased over the past year from 42,4 to 44,2 per 100 000, which is only slightly lower than the leading province, the Eastern Cape at 47,3. But whereas the Eastern Cape’s murder rate decreased by 2,3% in the past year, the murder rate in the Western Cape increased by 4,2%. There are a number of other such anomalies, with both the Western Cape and the Free State.

At this seminar, these and other issues relating to the crime statistics will be explored. We will also present the findings of a study of police station-level statistics, focusing on those experiencing particularly high levels of crime, and discuss how the ISS Crime and Justice Information Hub can assist in the analysis of local level crime. Provincial Commissioner of the South African Police Service in Gauteng, Lieutenant General Mzwandile Petros will respond to the presentations and offer his insights into the crime trends.

Speakers:

  • Dr Johan Burger: South Africa’s 2010/11 crime statistics: The unexplained deviations in provincial trends

  • Lizette Meyer-Lancaster: Police stations that drive South Africa’s high crime rates & an introduction to the utility of the ISS Crime and Justice Hub

  • Lieutenant General Mzwandile Petros: A reflection on the provincial crime trends by the Provincial Commissioner of the South African Police Service in Gauteng

This seminar is made possible with funding from the Hanns Seidel Foundation.  


ISS Rules:

Participants are free to use the information presented, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participants, may be revealed without his/her express permission.

 

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