Can Africa weather the storm in 2020?
Africa will face numerous elections in 2020, while the continent will have to deal with lingering conflicts and crises.
Hama Amadou, Niger’s main opposition leader, returned to his country on 14 November, after three years of exile in France. He was subsequently arrested and imprisoned on 18 November to serve the remainder of his sentence in the Filingué prison, near Niamey. He seems, de facto, excluded from the presidential race in December 2020.
Beyond Amadou’s political fate, the question of the social and political climate in the run-up to elections – and the instability that often results from it – continues to arise in Africa.
Electoral disputes and violence in Africa are generally the result of fierce contestation for power and contested electoral processes. Often electoral management bodies are believed to be partial and favouring incumbents. As a result, voters do not have faith in the fairness of the process.
Electoral disputes and violence in Africa are generally the result of fierce contestation for power
In 2020 Africa will again hold a number of elections, many of which will undoubtedly have an impact on continental peace and stability. In addition, some areas of the continent will remain hotspots in need of attention.
Elections in 2019 showed mixed results
As expected, elections were peaceful in South Africa and minimally tense in Senegal in early 2019, with Cyril Ramaphosa and Macky Sall remaining in power. In Mauritania, Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz kept his promise not to amend the constitution in order to run for a third term and in Nigeria’s polls in February experienced a major hiccup when, in a surprise move, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponed the elections. Election-related violence reportedly claimed the lives of 50 people.
In Cameroon, following controversial presidential elections in October 2018, legislative elections were postponed to 2020
In Cameroon, Chad and Guinea legislative elections were postponed to 2020. Meanwhile, in Guinea-Bissau elections were held at the end of November amid a prolonged political crisis. There was some glimmer of hope – incumbent Jose Mario Vaz, the first president in 25 years to finish a term without being overthrown and/or killed, failed to secure a spot in the second round.
In Guinea-Bissau elections were held at the end of November amid a prolonged political crisis
This is a rare occurrence on a continent where the incumbent usually benefits from huge advantages during elections.
Popular protests
Benin has undergone perhaps the most troubling political developments in 2019, since the country was in the past considered one of the relatively successful electoral democracies on the continent.
President Patrice Talon amended a number of laws in a move that the opposition decried as exclusionary and aimed at cementing his power. Public protests ensued and former president Thomas Boni Yayi was placed under house arrest before fleeing the country. The opposition boycotted legislative elections, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has since been trying to mediate the crisis.
Algeria and Sudan saw their respective incumbents forced out as a result of sustained popular protests
Algeria and Sudan saw their respective incumbents forced out as a result of sustained popular protests. In both cases the military got involved to secure the departure of the incumbents. In Sudan agreement on a transitional arrangement was reached between the military junta and civil society representatives. The situation in Algeria remained unclear at the end of 2019, as protesters refuse to agree to presidential elections in which most of the old guard from the Bouteflika era is represented.
All this indicates that issues around elections or political change on the continent remain volatile and have the potential to trigger or aggravate political crises, with the possibility of tipping over into violent conflict.
Likely election-related violence in 2020
In 2020 volatility and violence are expected to mark a number of elections on the continent. Presidential elections are scheduled in Burkina Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic (CAR), Côte d’Ivoire, Niger and Togo, as are general elections in Ethiopia.
The security situation in Burkina Faso and Niger has been severely affected by violent extremism
The security situation in Burkina Faso and Niger has been severely affected by violent extremism, with a worrisome increase in attacks in the latter. Although Burkina Faso’s political climate seems relatively calm, the government is under mounting pressure regarding its failure to counter the growing terrorism threat.
The same complaint is made about Niger, although this is compounded by a more contested political space, given the manoeuvrings to sideline opposition parties.
Côte d’Ivoire has had a difficult time in its process of peacebuilding and democratic consolidation
Meanwhile, since the post-electoral crisis of 2010–2011, Côte d’Ivoire has had a difficult time in its process of peacebuilding and democratic consolidation. What is brewing in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential elections has the potential to end up being another major crisis.
Togo will also go to the presidential polls, following major protests against the regime in 2017. Legislative elections in late 2018 were boycotted by the opposition and ensured an overwhelming victory for incumbent Faure Gnassingbé’s ruling party.
Since 2015 Burundi has also faced a crisis punctuated by episodes of violence and a deteriorating socio-political climate. Incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza is allowed to seek re-election after he amended the constitution in May 2018. He could stay in power until 2032. However, Nkurunziza says he will not run in next year’s presidential polls.
Upcoming elections in the CAR and Ethiopia leading to tension
The CAR, in severe crisis since the end of 2012, will hold its second presidential and legislative elections in a difficult context, since the election of Faustin-Archange Touadera in March 2016. The peace agreement of 6 February 2019 between the government and 14 armed groups seems at serious risk, and elections will undoubtedly usher in a period of increased tensions, or even destabilisation.
Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed Ali, faces several crises
Ethiopia, led by Prime Minister and 2019 Nobel Peace Prize winner Abiy Ahmed, faces several crises in the context of its ethnic federalist model being challenged by various groups within the federation. The divisions within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, in addition to polarisation along ethnic lines accompanied by demands for more autonomy or regional statehood, place the country at risk of a potentially debilitating balkanisation. Abiy Ahmed must respond to these challenges in the run-up to the general elections, scheduled for May 2020.
All in all, given current trends and the social, political (and security) and economic climates in the above countries, it is expected that even in the best-case scenarios, the pre-, mid- and post-election periods will be characterised by some level of violence.
The question is really how much violence will ensue, as well as its intensity, duration and repercussions for the peace and stability of those countries.
Sahel, DRC and Sudan will remain hotspots
Other hotbeds of tension, crisis and conflict will continue to be of concern. The Sahel, where violent extremism has been occurring with renewed intensity, is an area that will require the whole of Africa to be fully involved in the search for and implementation of a holistic and durable solution.
The terrorist problem is all the more worrying because it is spreading like a trail of gunpowder across the continent
The terrorist problem is all the more worrying because it is spreading like a trail of gunpowder across the continent, now affecting northern Mozambique and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, occupying spaces where states are absent, and taking advantage of the social and economic misery of an often youthful and idle population that is without prospects for the future.
The political transition in Sudan, the conflict situation in South Sudan, and the prognosis for Ethiopia in 2020 make the Horn of Africa another region that risks increasing instability.
Security, political, social and economic crises will certainly be aggravated by climate change, which caused death and destruction on the continent this year. Extreme weather events destroy communities, disrupt farming and cause food insecurity, while African governments (and populations) remain unprepared to deal with this threat.
The need for continental action
One of the most divisive issues among political actors around elections is the impartiality or lack thereof of election management bodies and their siding with incumbent regimes. However, the AU’s electoral observer missions have not managed to lend more credibility to electoral outcomes or improve electoral processes.
The AU has to devise ways to help level the electoral playing field beyond simple electoral observation. This has to be combined with continuing efforts to entrench its shared values of good governance for better development outcomes.
If the continent is to achieve its promise of ‘a prosperous and integrated Africa’, it will have to continue working resolutely to tackle challenges head on.
