A tough battle ahead of AU Commission elections
Elections for a new AU Commission chairperson, deputy chairperson and 8 commissioners will be held at the next AU summit in July. Who are the candidates?
At the upcoming 27th African Union (AU) Assembly, to be held in Kigali from 17–18 July 2016, African heads of state will elect the handful of individuals who will lead the AU Commission (AUC) for the next four years. With the stepping down of AUC Chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, an interesting battle will be fought around this prestigious position. The position of deputy chairperson is also open, as are four commissioner positions. Another four commissioners are available for re-election for another term.
The PSC Report has exclusively obtained the names of all the candidates for these positions.
Half of the commission to be reshuffled
For the first time since 2008, both top positions in the AUC have to be filled when elections are held in July. Current Chairperson Dlamini Zuma has decided not to run for another term while her Deputy, Erastus Mwencha, is not allowed to serve in the new commission, having been elected twice (in 2008 and 2012). The portfolios of Political Affairs, Infrastructure and Energy, Rural Economy and Agriculture, Human Resources, and Science and Technology are also open. The commissioners of Peace and Security, Social Affairs, Trade and Industry, and Economic Affairs are running for re-election.
A lot depends on how smoothly these elections are conducted |
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The stakes are high. After the tight contest for AUC chairperson in 2012, a lot depends on how smoothly these elections are conducted. The status of the AUC chairperson and the commission has also increased as the AU takes on greater responsibilities and has a higher profile than in its early years.
Battle for the chairperson’s position heating up
Dr Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi (65), currently Botswana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, was chosen by a majority of member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as its candidate for the position of AUC chairperson at a meeting of the organisation in April. Despite being supported by South Africa and the regional bloc, her bid could be complicated by the fact that Botswana has not always gone along with AU positions on issues such as the International Criminal Court (ICC), for example. SADC argues that since Dlamini Zuma is stepping down it is entitled to another term. However, Venson-Moitoi will face two other candidates, from Eastern and Central Africa. This shows that a second term by a SADC national does not necessarily have the support of the other regions in the AU.
 SADC argues that since Dlamini Zuma is stepping down it is entitled to another term |
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For the Eastern region, Uganda has proposed Dr Specioza Naigaga Wandira Kazibwe (60), a member of the AU’s Panel of the Wise, a former UN special representative and former executive vice-president of Uganda (1994–2003). However, it is not sure whether Uganda can muster the full support of neighbouring states, as well as elsewhere on the continent. The contentious relations between Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and some of his counterparts in the Eastern region could hamper his candidate’s bid.
Agapito Mba Mokuy (51), Equatorial Guinea’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation, is the Central African candidate. He is relatively unknown compared to the two other candidates, but his country may launch serious diplomatic and financial efforts to gather votes in the various regional blocs.
The personal relationships built by President Teodoro Obiang Nguema during his long tenure and his assiduous attendance at AU gatherings are viewed as the main strengths of Mokuy’s bid, as his country has a poor record in human rights. Equatorial Guinea has hosted AU summits twice – in 2011 and 2014 – and Obiang Nguema was AU chairperson in 2011.
Can South African diplomacy deliver again?
A key question is whether South Africa will again launch the same diplomatic efforts it deployed for Dlamini Zuma four years ago to ensure a SADC candidate gets the job of AUC chairperson. In 2012, having a South African national in the competition had a paradoxical effect. On the one hand, regional powers (Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia) did not support the then-South African minister of home affairs for AUC chairperson. On the other hand, it certainly helped to change the position of some member states, which ultimately voted for Dlamini Zuma in the second and third rounds, after having supporting incumbent Jean Ping in the first. South Africa’s status on the continent and its diplomatic efforts between the two rounds of voting contributed to a change of vote by smaller states. Such an outcome is not guaranteed with a candidate from Botswana, especially because of the government’s position on certain human rights issues.
| Equatorial Guinea could argue that a Spanish-speaking national has never held the position |
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Mokuy’s bid, on the other hand, could see regional and language issues resurface. Like South Africa, which four years ago argued that a SADC national had never held the position of AU chairperson, Equatorial Guinea could also argue that a Spanish-speaking national has never held the position, despite the country’s various important contributions to the organisation.
The paradox is that South Africa’s position on salient issues – from Burundi to the ICC – seems closer to that of Equatorial Guinea than that of Botswana. In addition, the cultural identity of the chairperson will probably not play out against the same background of ideological considerations as in 2012, when Ping was deemed to be pro-France. In 2016 the nationalities of the three contenders for the position of chairperson are less likely to be used for this sensitive line of argument. Neither Uganda nor Equatorial Guinea can be characterised as being too close to their former colonial powers.
Nigeria and Algeria to fight for the position of Commissioner of Peace and Security
Algeria and Nigeria – both current members of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) – each nominated a single candidate for the commission; for the position in charge of peace and security. Smail Chergui, the incumbent, is running for a full four-year term. He was elected in 2013 to finish the term of his predecessor Ramtane Lamamra, who was appointed Minister of Foreign Affairs of Algeria.
Nigeria is presenting Salamatu Hussaini Suleiman, currently the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security and the former minister of women’s affairs (2008–2010). Chergui and Suleiman will face three other candidates: Emmanuel Edou, Cameroon’s former defence minister and Burundi’s Epiphanie Ntamwana Kabushemeye, the former AU Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) civilian chief of staff.
A loss for either Algeria or Nigeria could diminish their status in the AU, since this would mean that they would not have any representation on the next commission. If Algeria lost, it would be an illustration of the limits of an African policy mostly based on its anti-colonial and anti-imperialist credentials. However, it must be remembered that Algeria has played an important role in the AUC this past decade by occupying the key post of Peace and Security Commissioner for successive mandates; first ambassador Said Djinnit from 2003 to 2008, then Lamamra and currently Chergui.
| A loss for either Algeria or Nigeria could diminish their status in the AU |
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If Nigeria loses, it could reflect badly on the Buhari administration, which has decided to contest the portfolio of Peace and Security and give up Political Affairs. The fact that Nigeria is eager to present a candidate for this position is a change from its past reluctance to openly compete with other regional powers for continental peace and security jobs.
Return to the status quo ante
Most of the candidates for the two top positions in the commission (chairperson and deputy chairperson) are from small and middle-sized states. It appears as though Dlamini Zuma’s tenure did not set a trend in convincing other regional powers to lead the commission or propose candidates for various positions. In 2012 South Africa was strongly criticised for breaking the unwritten rule that big powers should not occupy key positions in major continental institutions. Algeria, Nigeria and Kenya have each presented a single candidate for this commission. Ethiopia and South Africa have presented none.
| Most of the candidates for the two top positions in the commission are from small and middle-sized states |
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Cameroon and Egypt want to be in the next commission
As in 2012, Central Africa is leading in terms of the number of AUC candidates (13), followed by West Africa (10), the Eastern region (8), the Northern region (7) and the Southern region (2).
Cameroon and Egypt are respectively presenting eight and four candidates for the next commission. For Cameroon, this activism contrasts with the recurrent absence of President Paul Biya from AU meetings. However, these candidacies come after Cameroon withdrew its bid for a seat on the PSC in January this year, in order for the Republic of Congo to be elected.
Since Martial De-Paul Ikounga, the Congolese Commissioner for Human Resources, Sciences and Technology, is not running for a second term, one could consider that Cameroon and the Republic of Congo are trading diplomatic favours within the Central region.
| Cameroon and Egypt are respectively presenting eight and four candidates for the next commission |
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For Egypt, it is an illustration of its renewed interest in African affairs, especially since it was suspended after the coup against Mohammed Morsi. It also shows a reluctance to be left out of the commission for the next cycle, despite having had a commissioner for the past eight years. The logic behind having these multiple candidates is to be able to compete in various contests and so bargain on getting at least one position. However, it should be remembered that Cameroon presented eight candidates in 2012 and in the end did not get a single position in the AUC.
Regional balance and diplomatic efforts have the greatest influence
While professional background and international experience matter for election as member of the commission, the regulations insist on the need for an equal geographical distribution. Diplomatic efforts led by the heads of state of nominating countries play an important role in the ultimate outcome. The gender balance is another important criterion to be taken into consideration.
According to the statutes of the commission, regions are supposed to present two candidates each – one male, one female – for every portfolio. The statute of the commission states that ‘at least one Commissioner from each region shall be a woman’. However, women constitute fewer than half of the candidates for the next commission: 14 out of 40. As a result of these considerations the contests for the various portfolios will have an impact on one another.
| The competition will be shaped by considerations of gender and regional representivity |
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For example, if Mokuy is elected chairperson, the AU will be in a difficult position since there is no female candidate for deputy chairperson, even though it is not a legal requirement. Following the same logic regarding regional balance, if the Ghanaian candidate is elected as deputy chairperson, it will clearly affect the chances of the Nigerian candidate to Peace and Security or the Guinean candidate to Political Affairs. It is unlikely that the other regions will accept that two top positions are filled by candidates from the same part of the continent. Such a scenario shows how the competition will be shaped by cross-considerations of gender and regional representivity.
Former ministers and civil servants dominate among candidates
Seventeen candidates out of the 44 currently running for positions in the new commission are or have been members of a government. Having been a government minister seems to be a crucial criterion to become a member of the commission. Another important category is candidates coming from international organisations. There are 12 of these: four from the AU, five from the regional economic communities (RECs) and three from the African Development Bank.
In terms of socio-professional categories, civil servants constitute almost half (19) of the candidates. The other categories are academics (8), engineers (six) and physicians (three).
| The AUC’s bureaucratic and hierarchic culture could ultimately constrain new initiatives |
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An interesting feature of this list is the marginal representation of professions usually associated with civil society. There are only one lawyer and one journalist among the candidates. Interestingly, the two candidates from civil society are presented or supported by major states for the two top positions of the organisation (AUC chairperson and commissioner of Peace and Security).
It seems that smaller states are not willing to take a risk by presenting candidates from these backgrounds. This contrasts with the call to open the AU to individuals from civil society organisations. The prevalence of civil servants, either from national administrations or from international organisations, is seemingly the logical outcome of a selection process tightly controlled by states and regional organisations.
While this guarantees a commission with experience in and knowledge of public administration, it could have negative consequences for a commission that strives to be more independent, efficient and effective, rather than bureaucratic. An extensive awareness of the AUC’s bureaucratic and hierarchic culture could ultimately constrain new initiatives taken by the future commissioners.
